Trumpism is here to stay

By Pete North - November 5, 2020

It remains our view that US elections are not all that important in the grander scheme of things and certainly not from the British perspective. A president is for four years but Brexit is for life. All the while, a US president is constrained by the constitution and the institutions of American democracy. If, as it seems, Joe Biden has taken the White House, he faces implacable opposition in the senate and in due course the Republicans will reclaim congress.

That said, the US election is certainly worthy of our attentions. Though the importance of this election is overstated, the bigger picture is far more intriguing. The story of this election will be how a tech giant used its monopoly over political discourse to control speech on the internet to the advantage of its preferred candidate. We have certainly turned a corner.

What we have not seen, however, is a repudiation of Trumpism. The cultural schism in American politics is in no way resolved. The ghost of Trump will haunt American politics for the next term and beyond.

The Trump campaign knew this election was likely to be close, they knew the media would drop any pretense of objectivity and they knew Democrat voter fraud would be a factor. The narrative they are presently weaving, that of a stolen election, is one they’ve been building for months, planting suspicion into the debate, building the conspiracy theory so even with Trump gone, the larger “people versus the corrupt establishment” narrative will continue to simmer.

Add to this the bizarre conduct of the vote count, there will always be a question of legitimacy in the minds of the American right. This does seem to be a feature of the modern political playbook. Following the 2016 referendum, remainers used it to the fullest to cast doubt on the verdict with a view to overturning it by any means necessary. A sizable constituency will always believe that the referendum was stolen by Russian hypno-toads and and Twitter voodoo paid for by shadowy oligarchs.

In the USA, though, there always has been good reason to suspect foul play on the part of the Democrats who pioneered voter registration campaigns with a view to tilting the postal vote. Everyone knows something grubby is going on. If not illegal then certainly unethical.

For this reason Trumpism is not going away. If Biden has won we’ll see a lame duck presidency, mired in suspicion, and left carrying the can for Covid as it continues to sweep across America. Enough time for the GOP to regroup. Until the culture wars are resolved American politics will continue to wax and wane between the extremes with the centre barely able to hold the line. I doubt a Biden administration has what it takes to distance itself from identity politics and the lunatic left. Obama had that gravitas but gravitas in the oval office is a distant memory.

Meanwhile I’m far from alone in believing Biden won’t see out a full term. The dementia is clearly creeping in and if his decline accelerates he’ll have to step down. It would be cruel and unusual to keep an invalid president in office as a mere figurehead. That then has me wondering who will actually be running the show and whose agenda is in play. It will further add to the suspicion that someone else is pulling the strings.

If anyone believes a Biden win is the resumption of American democratic norms or a reversion to consensus politics they’re in for a nasty surprise. 2016 let the genie out of Pandora’s box on both sides of the Atlantic and though progressives may mournfully hark back to their days of glory, the old order, including the orderly transfer of power, is dead. Electoral lawfare and dark propaganda campaigns are here to stay.

I hope I’m wrong but I have the feeling that America is on a path to civil war albeit a low intensity one. Until there is a movement with a commanding majority, neither side will give loser’s consent. America is too fragmented and too fraught and it will stay that way until there is a new national narrative that can unite the country – if it can even continue as a contiguous country. A tainted elder statesman such as Biden can’t change that.

It could be that fatigue sets in and Trumpism simply runs out of steam but the far left won’t rest and identity politics is also here to stay. If there is a political ceasefire it can only be temporary. The whole world is in search of a new normal and things won’t settle down til we find one the majority can live with. The west faces a long period of economic and social upheaval and the worst is yet to come.