Covid: running out of road
By Pete North - June 21, 2021
It would seem that a third wave of Covid is ramping up. I’m not up on the latest data collection techniques or the reporting methods, but if we take them at their word then this isn’t over. The government is likely to respond with continued but limited controls, leading to more of the same policy incoherence which is going down like a lead balloon. Talk of this third wave will occupy us until some time in October when there’ll be talk of a fourth wave and another long winter lockdown.
Lefty progressives who tell us to “listen to the experts” (despite not understanding basic differences between men and women) are saying we need to adopt an elimination strategy – taking a maximalist approach to lockdowns, appreciating that though it requires greater infringements of liberty, they are less damaging in the short term compared with countries taking the mitigation strategy instead, who then face longer term abridgements of rights.
They then argue that countries opting for elimination are likely to return to near normal: they can restart their economies, allow travel between green zones. The consequences of varying government COVID-19 responses, they say, will be long-lasting and extend beyond the end of the pandemic.
I’m inclined to believe that much in theory, but only in theory. There are mighty big caveats. For starters this is a global pandemic with multiple strains in play, and the belief that green zones offer any meaningful protection against re-seeding is bogus. The system is only as strong as the weakest enforcement of disease surveillance. Moreover, borders are porous. Illegal entry exists. It is not enforceable, and as we have seen with the Indian variant, once it lands, unless you can contain it in the very early days, it will re-seed.
In the UK particularly, containment is likely to face political opposition since it will more than likely get a foothold in vaccine hesitant ethnic minority communities who will not respond to government coercion, and will fiercely resist targeted measures imposed on them. They will the ignore regional lockdowns (which are also unenforceable) leaving only national lockdowns. Any theorising that does not take into account the social and political composition of a country is doomed to fail.
More to the point, after a year of living under the cosh, and livelihoods already taking a hammering, it is a political non-option. Eventually you reach a point where the cure is worse than the disease, and with a massive backlog of clinical and surgical treatments, the deaths could end up dwarfing the impact of Covid (if they haven’t already). If we ever had a chance at containing and eliminating Covid, we missed it.
It is now well established that vaccination alone can not control a virus and that a combination of public health measures are needed for containment. But we have failed on every count. Communication is poor, incoherent, inconsistent, and at times dishonest, and the less said about our test, trace and isolate measures the better. Eradication is a non-starter now. You cannot expect an educated and sceptical public to believe that things which have thus far not worked will work in the near future (even under completely new management).
The most we can now expect is to ensure the most vulnerable are vaccinated and to ensure vaccination is kept up to date, and to improve treatments for those infected. In case of a surge we need to be able to keep Covid out of hospitals so we need a manning and training policy to ensure that Nightingale hospitals, if restarted, can take the strain. With intelligent division of labour this should not be beyond our abilities.
It is probable that most will accept another winter lockdown, not least since Brits tend to go into semi-hibernation over winter anyway, and if that buys time to complete our vaccination programme and get a fuller picture of vaccine efficacy, then we will know more about where to go next. But either way, with faith in this government gradually collapsing, and a squeeze on supply chains, and a growing anti-lockdown protest movement becoming ever more aggressive, the politics simply cannot be ignored. We’re only a poll-tax riot away from ministerial resignations and very possibly a general election if the Tory party splits.
This to me is taking on a similar character to the Brexit debate, where one side implores us not only to listen to the experts but also obey them. Brexit, though, was a matter of who governs us, where expert testimony certainly had value as to what could happen, it was not something economists and trade wonks could decide for us or had any right to. The same is also true of Covid. Experts can advise on the trade-offs, but any policy if it is to work, must have broad public consent. This is a political, not technical decision.
It has been suggested that the issue could be put to a referendum, but in all likelihood, a binary proposition would be every bit as divisive, and subject to much the same tribal divisions, generating more heat than light. Not forgetting the implausibility and futility of conducting a lockdown referendum amidst a pandemic. Especially given the rules and codes of conduct for referendums. This is really a decision only the government can take, and one with grim political consequences either way.
In recent months we have remarked how Boris Johnson has been the luckiest son-of-a-bitch of all time having Covid mask the effects of his botched Brexit deal, but if he is not to be judged on Brexit then he will be judged on whatever major decision he makes as regards future lockdowns. He has already lost the ultra-brexiteers and conservatives who fear the party is going too far to the left, and anyone who thought this government would get to grips with illegal immigration. Meanwhile the remainers still hate his guts either way. Another year of this and Johnson will have few supporters left. You can see why the Tories are keen to keep us preoccupied with culture wars to stop us noticing how abysmal they are.
This, of course, is not forgetting that our controls incoming goods go live in October (last time I looked), exacerbating already acute supply chain problems. We could also see a vaccine supply crunch for any number of reasons. When Cummings asserts that Johnson is keen to cut and run sooner rather than later, I think he’s probably on to something. With a mess this big, no easy answers, and nobody left to blame, his standing can only deteriorate. He’ll want to go – and we are as well rid of him.
The question then, is who replaces the Oaf, and what their Covid politics are. The future of the country is once agin back in the hands of the Tory membership, which by now is probably militantly anti-lockdown and keen to dispense with masks. That may prove popular but if any subsequent government cannot catch up with the NHS backlog and Covid continues to overwhelm hospitals, then the Tories may be joining labour in the graveyard of establishment parties. By the looks of it, this is a long way from over and Brexvid is going to cast a far longer shadow than any of us imagined.