Politics: the democratic thing

By Richard North - April 14, 2022

Putting into perspective Johnson’s vainglorious but essentially trivial offer of extra equipment to Ukraine is Biden’s latest tranche, worth $800 million. Crucially, it includes 18 155mm howitzers, possibly M-109 Paladins, together with 40,000 rounds of ammunition. This is the very capability which Johnson has been unable to supply and Zelensky says he so desperately needs.

Added to the list also are ten AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder radar sets, to add to the two already supplied in 2015. These are a potent force enhancer when used in conjunction with the Paladins. They can be used to locate incoming fire and direct counter-battery operations, each set being capable of locating ten weapons simultaneously.

The equipment can also be used to guide the fire of the Paladins, predicting the impact location of rounds while they are still in flight, thus allowing rapid adjustments to targeting, improving the accuracy (and lethality) of subsequent rounds.

Doubtless, these sets can also be used with the 16 155mm Zuzuan self-propelled guns, supplied by Slovakia, amounting to its entire arsenal. Slovakia is also to send ammunition and fuel worth €11 million.

Additionally, the US is to supply 200 M-113 armoured personnel carriers. Although from the Vietnam era, these rugged, tracked machines are simple to operate and work effectively as “battlefield taxis”, with a limited fighting capability. Their off-road performance will be far superior to anything Johnson will have to offer.

With the other equipment and materiel that Biden is supplying, adding another 300 Switchblade tactical unmanned aerial systems, and 500 more Javelins – plus 11 Mi-17 helicopters (which were probably originally destined for Afghanistan) – this substantially enhances Ukrainian combat power.

Also, it appears that the Ukraine Army has taken delivery of 26 Dana M2 152mm self propelled howitzers, manufactured in the Czech Republic. Similar to the Zuzuan system, these guns use the Soviet 152mm round, rather than the Nato 155mm ammunition, which the Ukrainians should be able to supply from their own stocks.

The fact that this equipment has been committed without the need for high-profile personal visits add fuel to the suspicion that Johnson’s surprise visit to Ukraine was – especially in view of the timing – intended to reduce the impact of the “partygate” fine.

Certainly, as we saw yesterday, Johnson’s allies are using his involvement in Ukraine as an excuse for his refusal to resign as prime minister.

As the days pass, however, the impact of his visit and promise of aid has substantially reduced, almost in direct proportion to the growing intensity of the “partygate” scandal. Far from proving to be a one-day wonder, allowing the “war leader” to get back to his work of defeating the Russians, today’s press is not letting go.

Almost as if it had been reading this blog, the Daily Mirror is headlining a “bang to rights” claim on its front page as it retails the “exclusive” news that Johnson faces three more Covid fines.

It seems that the Met Police are investigating a dozen gatherings in Downing Street, and Johnson is said to have been at six of them, of which at least three have the prime minister participating to a greater extent than he did at his birthday party bash, for which he has already been fined.

While the Mirror has three potentials, the Telegraph claims an “exclusive” with just one, referring to a speech the prime minister made at the gathering for outgoing director of communications Lee Cain. It is understood that he remained at the gathering for some time, making it more difficult for him to argue that it was a work event and he had a “reasonable excuse” for being there.

The paper cites a source close to the “partygate” investigation who says that the June 2020 birthday party event, for which Johnson was fined £50, was far less serious than Cain’s leaving party. According to this source, the event that took place on 13 November is considered to be the most serious breach of the coronavirus regulations among the events that the prime minister attended.

In his grudging apology yesterday for his birthday bash, Johnson made great play of the fact that he had attended for less than 10 minutes, as if that somehow reduced the nature of the offence. But his longer attendance at the Cain event is likely to make his earlier attempt at excusing himself sound just as grudging as it really was.

Matching the Mirror and not even claiming an “exclusive”, the Guardian has also gone for the possibility of Johnson facing three more fines, adding the detail covered by most newspapers that Lords justice minister David Wolfson resigned on Wednesday.

Wolfson says he resigned not only because of Johnson’s conduct but also “the official response to what took place”. The Guardian has him saying that the behaviour stood in stark contrast to many in society who “complied with the rules at great personal cost, and others were fined or prosecuted for similar, and sometimes apparently more trivial, offences”.

But with only one fine for what was being called a relatively “minor offence”, it was beginning to look as if the pressure on Johnson to resign was abating. But now, with multiple fines on the cards, there is “continued nervousness” in government that the prime minister’s position could come under threat when MPs return to Westminster from recess next week.

Nevertheless, even this “minor offence” isn’t going away. We are told that those who attended the birthday party say they have raised eyebrows at the description of the gathering, with one describing it as a “party atmosphere” with singing, attended by his wife, Carrie Johnson, and his interior designer Lulu Lytle.

Another, we are told, said they believe photos taken of the event by Johnson’s personal photographer – which have been disclosed to the official Sue Gray investigation into lockdown parties – would leave it beyond doubt that it was an event that breached the rules.

There is an odd synchronicity here with the Ukraine war. While there is something of a hiatus in the country-wide fighting, as the Russians gear up for their expected assault on Donbass, a Downing Street source also talks of an “apparent lull”, which felt like “calm before the potential storm”.

It would be instructive to get the views of Zelensky and the other players (even Putin) on “partygate”, if they could be induced to focus on it. Here we have a titanic struggle with nations locked in mortal combat and the leader of the UK government is mired in a scandal over his attendance at a series of parties.

To the outsider, this might seem all very trivial, except that – at the time – Covid was regarded as a life or death issue and the population at large was under severe constraints, enforced by the police invoking criminal law introduced by the Johnson administration.

In that context, Johnson is the very antithesis of Zelensky. When the latter has led from the front from the very start of the war, throughout the “partygate” affair Johnson and his administration have conveyed the impression that laws are for “little people” and do not apply to their political masters, where even the official who drafted the law was fined over a “boozy” lockdown leaving party.

In lauding Johnson, Zelensky is showing a certain naivety, although he may feel that he needs to take what support he can get. But if the Ukrainian president had treated his own people the same as Johnson treats his, the official language in Kiev right now might be Russian.

Should Johnson eventually be forced to do the democratic thing and resign, this should come as no surprise to the Ukrainian president, although I can imagine Putin being totally dumfounded.