Ukraine: bogged down

By Richard North - March 15, 2022

There is a certain sameness to the reports coming out of Ukraine at the moment, lending credence to what in fact is another of those statements of the bleedin’ obvious, this one coming from an unnamed senior US defence official.

In what was described as a “background briefing”, he told reporters yesterday what they might have worked out for themselves, or could have read from any number of open source accounts, that “almost all” of the Russian advances “remain stalled”. Who knew?

In particular, the reporters were told, presumably so that they could convey their wisdom to the great unwashed, Russian forces moving on Kiev, including the infamous convoy to the north, have not appreciably progressed over the weekend. However, the US does see Russia trying to “flow in forces behind the advance elements” moving to the north of the city, while some journalists report a greater intensity of fighting in the northern outskirts.

The assaults on the cities of Chernihiv and Kharkiv also remain stalled, but the Russians have split off a force of 50-60 vehicles to move towards the town of Izium. This is presumed to be a move to block off the flow of Ukrainian forces from the western part of the country.

Ukraine defence forces continue to defend Mariupol, though the city remains isolated. Russian forces have also not moved closer to the town of Mykolaiv, from which they could have their forces move on Odessa or north towards Kiev where they could help encircle the city.

Elsewhere, we are able to read of additional comments from this defence official, to the effect that the Ukrainian armed forces have “skilfully” defended their country’s airspace and have not allowed the Russians to gain air superiority.

We are not told the obvious though, that the degree to which airspace is contested varied with the region, with the areas closest to the Russian and Belarus borders being more heavily dominated by Russian anti-aircraft defences. It must also be said that the Ukrainians have no defences against Russian strategic bombers launching cruise missiles from outside their territory, although they are able to intercept and shoot down the missiles.

With that, the Ukrainians claimed yesterday to have downed one fixed wing aircraft and four helicopters, as well as one Forpost UAV which had been studying the effects of the strike on the Yavoriv military base, bringing the claimed total to 19 fixed-wing aircraft, 20 helicopters and five UAVs. One cruise missile was shot down by a fighter aircraft and strikes on Russian military convoys were carried out by the Air Force’s Su-24M and Su-25 strike aircraft.

There seems to be a distinction in the way the Ukrainian and the Russians are using their airpower, the former directing it solely against military assets, while the Russians are accused of “using bomber aviation in order to destroy the military and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine”.

For the rest, we have what has become the routine litany of death and destruction, with artillery and missile strikes on the civilian population, while evacuations continue and refugees continue to flow across the borders, albeit at a slower rate to some countries than in the recent past.

There is a perverse twist to the refugee tale though. Middle East asylum seekers who had been camped out in Belarus on the Polish border, trying to get access into EU territory, have been peremptorily ordered by Belarusian soldiers to choose between two options: crossing the border into Poland, where guards have beaten them back, or entering Ukraine.

Charities, we are told, fear that asylum seekers will be again used as weapons, opening a new crisis on the Polish north-eastern border. This will add to the political and logistical stress in a country already struggling with large numbers of Ukrainian refugees.

Proving however, that every cloud has a silver lining, the Ukrainian Association of Renewable Energy is complaining that almost half of Ukraine’s renewable energy facilities, worth almost $6 billion, is threatened with destruction by Russian troops

There are, it seems, registered cases of destruction of wind turbines, solar panels, electrical equipment of renewable stations, electric transmission lines, and electrical substations. Russian occupation forces are stealing equipment from the stations, everything that can be stolen and taken away, the Association says.

On the other hand, every silver lining has a cloud. Boris Johnson, who is apparently still the UK prime minister, is using the February War as an excuse to promote his mad “net zero” agenda, creating a dangerous dependency on renewables. And then he accuses Putin of exploitation.

As always, though, blond-haired man speak with forked tongue. According to The Times, his government is exploring whether old coal-fired power stations that are due to close this year could be kept open to ease the current energy crisis. Officials have approached coal plant operators, conducting early-stage talks that are aimed at preventing Britain becoming even more reliant on burning gas for electricity.

Meanwhile, back in what passes for the real world, Zelensky’s team has been meeting the Russians again for the latest round of peace talks. The talks adjourned yesterday for a “technical pause”, but are to resume today.

We are told that a Russian delegate has said the talks have made “substantial progress” and a “joint position” could be reached soon, producing documents ready for signing.

The big problems, of course, are how to break it to Putin that he has already lost and then how to get Zelensky to agree a face-saver that will allow the Russian president to concede defeat and withdraw his troops.

At least the Russians have made a start, with the head of country’s National Guard conceding that the “military operation” in Ukraine is not going as quickly as the Kremlin had wanted.

This is Viktor Zolotov, but he blames the slower-than-expected progress on what he claims are “far-right Ukrainian forces” hiding behind civilians. This is a common accusation levelled by Russian officials, but at least is slightly more candid than defence minister Sergei Shoigu’s recent statement to Putin, when he said “everything is going according to plan”.

As to that plan, we are now fairly well assured that this depended on a lightning thrust into Kiev from the Belarus border, with the way for the ground forces paved by an airborne assault on Hostomel airfield on the first day of the invasion.

Since no organised resistance was expected, the troops were supposed to be in Kiev within 2-3 days of the invasion, toppling the Zelensky government and imposing a Russian puppet.

This coup de main was blocked by the robust action of the Ukrainian armed forces while the political strategy failed when Zelensky remained in place, rallying the nation to the fight and building international support. Now, 20 days down the line, it is simply not possible for the Russians to recover.

And now, even more weeks down the line, we get the Telegraph, using Christopher Foss, a former editor of Jane’s Armour and Artillery, finally to admit that the force it described, pre-invasion, as “a modern, lethal machine”, does not live up to its billing. “Much of the Russian equipment is hopelessly antiquated”, Foss says.

Therein lies the heart of Putin’s problem. Years of corruption, incompetence and delusion are now exposed for all the world to see, and there is no rowing back from that position. The Russian army may be good at killing civilians and breaking things, but it is not a credible fighting machine against a well-motivated enemy which is tolerably well-equipped. Like many of his tanks (pictured), Putin’s homicidal assault is not so much stalled as completely bogged down and going nowhere.

And, lacking the capability to win, we will see many more inconclusive days like yesterday until somehow, the political realities are acknowledged, and this wretched affair is brought to a halt.