Ukraine: hope springs eternal

By Richard North - March 11, 2022

Few had any expectations that the meeting in Turkey between Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russian minister Sergey Lavrov would prove fruitful. It didn’t.

Nevertheless, Ukraine minister of defence Oleksiy Reznikov felt confident enough to call for every Russian soldier to surrender “before it is too late”, and remark that Ukraine will accept Russia’s capitulation “with understanding”.

That was not before Lavrov had delivered his Comical Ali moment, when asked whether Russia was planning to attack other countries. Said the foreign minister: “We are not planning to attack other countries. We didn’t attack Ukraine in the first place”.

Grateful Ukrainian citizens should now be able to relax, while we wait to hear of the plans to return the two million refugees to their home country.

Maybe though, they will have to wait a little longer – although it may not be too long. For the first time, yesterday, I had a glimmer of hope that the Ukrainians might actually thwart the Russian attempts to encircle Kiev and fight the invaders to a standstill.

The cause of my optimism was an event on the north side of the village of Skybyn, about 5 km northeast of Brovary where we saw such an example of Russian military performance (apparently) so egregiously poor that even the Telegraph has noticed.

What we see from the video is a group of 20 or so armoured vehicles parked in a tight group on the northbound carriageway (shown on the front page of the Telegraph and other papers), facing north. They belong to a larger formation, largely tanks, a column of which is spread along the opposite carriageway – with some vehicles parked off-road also facing north.

All the vehicles, therefore – except one or two guard tanks – are facing away from Brovary and Kiev, presumed to be the eventual destination. All, in the relevant opening frames of the video clip, are stationary.

Without warning, the group is hit by artillery fire, destroying at least three vehicles; one is a T-72 the other a BTR-80 type. As the shells (or rockets – there is speculation that these are Grad-21s) fall, figures are seen rushing to the vehicles. The whole column gets underway and drives off in a northerly direction.

Three perplexing issues that emerge from the video clip: firstly, although the presumption is that the column is advancing on Brovary and then Kiev, the vehicles are facing in the wrong (opposite) direction. Secondly, the column is stationary and crews are dismounted.

It is the third issue, though, that the Telegraph picks up, noting that “defence watchers” have criticised the column for displaying poor tactics. The entire group of vehicles is caught on a main road, whence the speculation is that “commanders have decided cross-country movement is too risky”.

However, closer observation – with the aid of Google Maps – may provide an alternative (or additional) explanation. To the right of the clustered group is a petrol station. To its left, on the opposite carriageway – from where figures emerge once the shelling starts – is a Coca Cola drinks bar. This looks very much like the column is laagering.

Of course, the commanders can be criticised for exposing the column to harassing fire, and it is understood that the regimental commander was killed in the attack. But two other issues have also emerged, which lend greater significance to this incident.

The first of those is that the Skybyn attack wasn’t the only incident. Later, it is said that there was another clash, this one at the village of Mokrets, some 30 km to the northeast. Seven Russian T-72s and APC are said to have been captured. The video clip shows five T-72s destroyed – which might be the incident reported here.

This is significant enough, but what is possibly more so is that some of the tanks in the engagements are identified at T-72As. The precise variant seems to be a matter of dispute but, either way, we are looking at tanks of considerable antiquity, getting on for 40 years old, without upgrades.

It the Russians are fielding this equipment – which evidently they are – they are down to the dregs. Even the later-model T-72B3s are poor tanks by modern standards – and were originally designed as a cheap compromise for the export market. Despite their added armour, they are easily prey to the anti-tank weapons that the Ukrainians are fielding, so an “A” variant is scarcely, if at all, battle-worthy.

This makes a complete mockery of the “puff” pieces written in the Telegraph and elsewhere about Putin’s green, lean, killing machine – often featuring those self-same “experts” who are now explaining to us why the Russian army is performing so poorly.

I happened on another of those yesterday, this one in the New York Times published on 27 January of this year, telling us: “Russia’s military, once creaky, is modern and lethal”. A “significantly upgraded military”, we were informed, “has emerged as a key tool of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy”.

Under Mr. Putin’s leadership, said the NYT, the fighting force massed near the border with Ukraine had been “overhauled into a modern sophisticated army, able to deploy quickly and with lethal effect in conventional conflicts”. It featured precision-guided weaponry, a newly streamlined command structure and well-fed and professional soldiers.

Interestingly, though, the paper cited Oleksiy Arestovych, a former Ukrainian military intelligence officer who is now a political and military analyst. He told us that: “Not all the forces arrayed along the Ukrainian border are Russia’s most advanced. The ones amassed in the north have older weaponry and are mostly there to intimidate and stretch Ukrainian resources”.

That was the “antiques road show” that we observed before the invasion and is doubtless part of the reason why Zelensky’s Chief of Staff didn’t believe Russia would launch full-scale invasion. Said Andriy Yermak, the authorities were preparing for Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine for months but, “they did not believe it would actually happen”.

Now these antiques are fighting on the front line, it can hardly be surprising that – as one local journalist reports on what he is calling “The Battle of Kyiv” – no significant changes to the military dispositions have been observed. The Russians, he says, are still finding it extremely hard to advance further south to gain a foothold west of Kiev.

They are not even close to success to the east, where the same journalist reports of the Chernihiv region, the Russian military has abandoned ten fully operational tanks, a SAM unit, and a medevac vehicle following contact with the Ukrainian military.

US officials, though, don’t seem to be on quite the same hymn sheet, with CNN telling us that they are reporting Russian forces moving three miles closer to Kiev and warning that the city of Chernihiv is now “isolated”.

These officials may have been influenced by the report that the so-called “40-mile convoy” has broken up and been redeployed. Armoured units have been seen in towns near Antonov airport and some of the vehicles have moved into forests, with towed howitzers in position three miles north of the airfield, ready to open fire.

That may indicate that the long-expected assault on Kiev is that much closer, pointing to a torrid time for the defenders. But the Russians have still to get across the Irpin River, where the bridges are already demolished. A staunch defence is expected, and hope springs eternal.