Ukraine: the home front
By Richard North - October 30, 2022
While attention in the UK has been largely focused on the political psychodrama, the real life drama in Ukraine continues unabated. But, as before, only probably more so, accurate and timely information is hard to get.
Of the most notable developments, undoubtedly the most serious is the Russian attack on the Ukrainian electricity and water infrastructure. But while there is no question of the severity of the attacks, it is hard to avoid the suspicion that the extent of the damage has been understated.
Despite initial claims of “indiscriminate” attacks on civilian targets, two weeks into the campaign that started on 10 October, the Washington Post was talking of the attacks on the energy infrastructure having been so methodical and destructive that Ukrainian and Western officials were suggesting that they were being directed by electricity specialists who knew exactly which targets would inflict maximum pain on Ukraine’s grid.
As it stands, less than a week later, one of the latest reports tells of four million people across Ukraine having been hit by power cuts, with president Zelensky warning of “unprecedented” outages.
Zelensky’s statement was made on Friday. Yet, we’ve heard nothing more in terms of quantifying the extent of the damage since earlier reports from the power authorities, admitting to 30 percent degradation of the electricity system.
Since then, though, there have been additional attacks by the Russians throughout Ukraine, with considerable damage reported. And while there have been repairs carried out, the indications are that these are no match for the scale of damage – yet there have been few reports of system degradation exceeding that level.
One such comes from the Independent which has Kiev’s mayor saying that the capital’s power grid is working in “emergency mode” with energy supplies down as much as 50 percent from pre-war levels.
We can also draw some inferences from the earlier reports of limited outages lasting three hours, compared with the more recent statement from energy company DTEK, the operator for the Kyiv region. Like Zelensky, it too was warning on Friday that there would have to be “unprecedented” power cuts to prevent a complete blackout.
The very latest report, however, is more optimistic, having Zelensky claim yesterday that stabilisation and emergency shutdowns carried out on Saturday were “an order of magnitude less” than on previous days.
But, he said, “Russian terror continues, it is very cynical. Sometimes repeated strikes are deliberately carried out when repairs have begun, when restoration is underway”.
It takes little effort to imagine the human impact of these attacks, but CNN helpfully provides detail to add colour to the news reports.
Driving around the city, the broadcaster tells us, has become more dangerous during the blackouts; road traffic accidents are up 25 percent, according to police. Shops shut down when they lose power and some restaurants have begun to advertise “blackout” menus of food and beverages they can serve during cuts. Workers come out to the street and smoke when a blackout results in an unexpected break.
But in other areas, the effects are far more dramatic. Iryna Kondratova, head of the perinatal centre at a hospital in Kharkiv, tells of her hospital working to secure medical equipment with autonomous power supply because relying on generators is too risky.
“It may take approximately 15 to 20 minutes from the moment when the electricity turned off and before it appears from the generator”, says, posing the question: “What shall we do during 15-20 minutes if the child is not breathing?”
More prosaically, to help people heat their homes, the Ukrainian government has launched a new “online firewood store” to assist people to find local suppliers. Pictures of people trying to heat food with candles are circulating on social media, CNN tells us.
But something of much broader impact is the refugee situation. Earlier this week, CNN says, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk advised Ukrainian refugees not to return home this winter because the country’s fragile power grid is at risk of becoming completely overwhelmed.
The earlier Washington Post report also drew attention to the refugee issue. Russia’s shift in tactics, the paper said, is alarming Ukrainian and Western officials as temperatures start to drop in Ukraine. They were warning that the attacks could inflict suffering on civilians, create a new wave of refugees and further eroding Ukraine’s war-shattered economy.
Since many Ukrainian cities are heated from centralised plants that require both electricity and gas to function – so-called combined heat and power generators- the attacks can be particularly devastating as consumers have no backups on which they can rely.
At the moment, there is little the Ukrainians can do to relieve the situation. Previously, when power plants or transmission lines came under attack, the Washington Post says, Ukrainian energy officials were able to reroute electricity around the problem, using their country’s extensive Soviet and post-Soviet energy infrastructure to bypass problems. But that resilience is eroding quickly, officials are saying, as import tests are being conducted.
Furthermore, many repairs (and certainly the more complex and expensive repairs) are considered pointless as long as Russia can attack the same targets again and again. Most of the substations and transformers need to sit above ground and many need to be clear of obstructions around them, making them easy targets.
This means that fears and warning about a new refugee crisis are coming to fruition, with the Sunday Telegraph reporting today with the headline: “Europe creaking under weight of new wave of Ukrainian refugees”. To no one’s great surprise, its sub-heading reads: “Locals are being forced from their homes after Russian power station attacks left them without heat and electricity”.
However, even though this new wave may be predictable, that doesn’t mean it is any easier to handle, in countries where support systems are already said to be at breaking point.
For instance, in Germany, more than a million Ukrainians have already arrived and municipalities have warned they can’t take in any more people. Tents and temporary shelters have been set up because migrant centres are full. Police suspect that blazes at two hotels housing Ukrainian refugees in Rostock, in north-eastern Germany, and Bautzen, east of Dresden, were politically motivated arson attacks.
Poland, which has been on the front line since the start of the crisis, has more than 1.4 million Ukrainians officially registered in the country and more are now expected. While there is huge support for Ukraine in the country, the ST says the cost-of-living crisis is beginning to take its toll on the economy. From the middle of next month Ukrainians living in shared accommodation and who have a job will have to pay half of their accommodation costs.
The Irish government has announced it will cost €2.5 billion to care for 100,000 Ukrainian refugees next year and suggested it could take in up to 200,000 Ukrainian refugees. But Dublin, we are told, is struggling to find accommodation for all the Ukrainians, with army style camp beds being deployed in sports centres. Ministers have not ruled out the prospect of some refugees having to sleep rough.
These are but small indications of troubles to come, with Hungary also expected to be a flash point, all of which points to the possibility that Russian strategists are deliberately engineering a refugee crisis as a means of sowing dissention amongst Ukraine’s supporters.
Meanwhile, Russia has pulled out of the deal that allowed free passage of ships carrying grain and other agricultural products from Ukrainian ports, apparently after the Ukrainians attacked the heavily fortified headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea yesterday, with reports that a Russian flagship had also been damaged in an attack by drones.
With the land war, especially in the southern sector complicated by the weather, following the onset of autumn rains, these previously peripheral clashes are assuming a greater importance then previously. When the winter takes hold, freezing conditions may restore mobility to the battlefields, but as the war drifts into its first full year, the home front is assuming greater importance than ever before.