SNP presumption could be its undoing

By Pete North - December 29, 2020

The conservative unionists on Twitter seem to have convinced themselves that this version of Brexit makes Scottish independence impossible now. Or rather highly unattractive. I don’t know how they arrive at either conclusion. Committed leavers will vote for independence regardless of the technical challenges. They are quite clear on this. The do not want to be run by the shower of shits in Westminster and I can’t say I blame them.

There is, though, a certain presumption in their position, that readmission to the European Union is as easy as filling in a benefit claim form. One might even say it amounts to the same thing and it is a Scottish instinct to do so. They are right to assume that a high level of political and technical alignment would shorten the accession process but there is no reason to believe it would be rapid.

For starters, I do not see concurrent negotiations happening. Scotland would have to resolve the terms of its departure first. This is trickier question than Brexit in that there is no formal exit process as such and a lot more to take into consideration and without clearly defined obligations and rights, as per Brexit, the EU would likely refuse to get involved with an accession process until the legal wrangling was concluded – which could go on for years, where London then has an incentive to drag it out.

I think even the EU would tread carefully on this one, not being foolish enough to allow itself to be used in an ethno-nationalist gripe. The Ukrainian process backfired somewhat, meanwhile the EU treads very carefully in the Balkans. If the EU is stupid enough to stick its oar in then it’s even more objectionable than I ever took it for. Taking any steps that could be seen as interfering could provoke London and sour relations further. Taking action in support of a separatist movement is effectively a hostile act.

Essentially the SNP cannot take it as read that they can effortlessly slide from one union to another. The separation process could very well stall, leaving Scotland in a legal limbo, which would require a similar three way administrative system akin with that of Northern Ireland. It doesn’t resemble any notion of independence as I understand it.

Many of the assumptions about Scottish independence seem to rest on the belief that the process is as easy as Brexit. This is why Unionists are calling for a secession clarity act – though they perhaps do not understand that the uncertainty of not having one is more influential. The lack of clarity, though, allows the SNP to simply make things up with scant regard to the trust as regards to how we would separate.

The supreme irony would be if Scotland did vote to leave but it proved to be so complicated that nobody was exactly sure how it could be done, reconciling the legacy issues with EU accession, leading the EU to back off completely so that Scotland would be facing its own “no deal” scenario with London unwilling to grant it any grace period. To have campaigned to leave on the presumption of joining the EU for it to then not happen, perhaps then having to negotiate EEA membership (with the hard border that would entail) the SNP would be sunk.

With this in mind there is absolutely nothing to recommend about “scexit”. I think it would hit the rocks and there would have to be a new act of Union but one built on a completely different legal foundation, perhaps granting it a formal veto on union wide matters in the same way as the Walloons. That, though, becomes unfair to other regions and nations of the UK, thus we are then looking at the need for an entirely new constitutional settlement subject to a UK wide referendum.

Ultimately I think this is an inevitability come what may, particularly considering that the Northern Ireland is by no means resolved. The NI protocol on the Withdrawal agreement does not look to be sustainable in the long term, and some more definite decisions will have to be made over its future. Having the UK, EU and Ireland staking a territorial claim, it’s hard to see how it can bear the weight of contradictions.

At this point, though, the very existence of the EU is becoming a disruptive influence in our politics, and far from creating peace in the region it continues to create divisions, in some cases through no fault of its own (except for the crime of existing). The core issue though, is not one of EU membership. The EU is used as a proxy in an intra-UK tribal dispute, of roughly the same kind we’ve had over the last thousand years. The EU has replaces the Vatican as the external influence. How this gets resolved, I do not know, but we have a long and unpleasant road to go down before the schism can heal.