Rejoin what exactly?

By Pete North - September 28, 2021

We do not yet know what form the new German government will take. We do not know what comes after Macron. But both Germany and France have their own challenges to absorb in the wake of Covid, facing many of the same problems as Brexit Britain, suffering from many of the same political undercurrents (if Barnier’s latest remarks are anything to go by). The EU will surely take on a new personality.

This also comes at a time when the EU struggles to assert its own authority over “rogue” members. Conservative eastern Europe is flexing its own muscles having sensed weakness in the Commission. And it’s not just Eastern Europe either. Immigration has been pushed back to the centre of the Spanish political debate following an invasion of illegal immigrants, and “the far-right, anti-immigrant Vox party, which currently polls in third place among Spanish voters, is especially fired up”.

Rocío Monasterio, the head of Vox in Madrid, has risen to political stardom with fierce attacks on immigrants. During the recent campaign, Vox planted billboards in Madrid showing an older woman next to a young man, presumably of Arab ethnicity, with the phrase “Your grandma gets a 426 euro pension a month; [an undocumented minor] gets 4,700 euros.” With Vox increasingly acting as a kingmaker in Spain, the PP [the centre right opposition] will have to seriously consider moving to the right as a strategic choice to win power.

This very much smacks of the “Ukip effect” which brought about our referendum. As much as immigration is a concern, economic nationalism is back in fashion. This began some time ago and we’re starting to see a subtle dismantling of the single market as we knew it. We may even see future modifications that end freedom of movement in some sectors.

Whatever happens, the EU certainly won’t be the liberal utopia that British remainers imagine it is – not that it ever was. The EU has a fight on its hands to remain relevant and to do that it must show it can deliver on securing Europe’s borders.

But then there’s a new era emerging in European politics. Through my lifetime, the major steps in European integration were taken in the shadow of WW2, with peacebuilding and reconciliation central to its vision – strengthening the relationship between Germany and France. But that generation is dying out, the memories fade into the mist of time, the founding fathers all gone, the momentum muted and it has nowhere else to go. There is no big treaty in the offing and nothing to advance le grand projet. It now concerns itself with harmonising charger cables for smartphones.

The task of the EU now is to hold together its accomplishments, to prevent disintegration or a gradual rowback. You don’t have to rip up a treaty to render it inert. And it must tread carefully. But deprived of its founding purpose and the spirit of peaceful union between formerly warring parties, it must find a new sense of purpose.

In that, having so little imagination, it will focus on the “climate emergency”, taking every opportunity to parade on the “world stage” with Greta Thunberg, absolutely oblivious to the disconnect between the eco-cultists and the real world. Britain suffers from the same disease. We’ve obeyed the Large Combustion Plant Directive and the Renewables Directive to the letter, and now we face an energy crunch, right about the time when government is coercing the auto industry to retool for electric cars that nobody wants and we we don’t have the capacity to charge. Meanwhile Germany has abandoned its nuclear and coal plants and is now wholly reliant on Russia for gas, thereby muting its own geopolitical powers.

It is only through the calculating shrewdness of Barnier and the fumbling incompetence of the Tories that the EU enjoys a reputation for competence but when we look at Europe’s energy situation it shows the EU is every bit as capable of galactic strategic blunders, exacerbated by its own narrow obsession with renewable energy. Meanwhile on the trade front, Covid has been a major disruptor of all the classic narratives we explored at length over the course of Brexit. Without the UK it is not quite the trade superpower it might have been, and the West is reconsidering globalisation. It’s harder than ever for the EU (or anyone) to deliver results through FTAs.

It is also no exaggeration to say that the single market is in big trouble. The food safety system is creaking, largely dependent on foreign vets who don’t know the local customs or language and there is a global veterinary shortage. The system is beginning to fail (as will our own for as long as it shadows the EU) and it faces worker shortages in the food and haulage sectors. It has to balance the requirement to control immigration with the needs of industry whose production models are predicated on low wage exploitation and easy access to foreign labour. It has exhausted its own reserve labour pool. Brexit Britain is close to realising this, but it’s unclear if that same penny is dropping in the EU.

It would seem that British remainer/Rejoiner types are pining for an EU that no longer exists and to some extent never did. The EU is already a different animal to that which existed during the Article 50 negotiations, and is sure to change again. Far from being a visionary project it is becoming more of a sterile technocracy fumbling around in search of a purpose, where the commission finds itself in the middle of a political minefield, where the next step could blow it all up. It can lavish funds on regional projects and “build back better” gimmicks, but it didn’t buy it any favours in Britain, and it won’t get the credit for its limited successes as national politicians move in and use the EU as a scapegoat.

When it comes to it, when Britain left the EU, it drew a line under the dream of a Europe united under one flag. We could rejoin but the EU as was, in terms of its spiritual essence, is already dead. The case for rejoining would be one of mere economic arguments, which are by no means slam dunk arguments. By the time the UK has adapted, though there will be many losers, there will also be winners. Not least HGV drivers and food workers and unions will enjoy greater bargaining powers. The left wing case for Brexit is becoming far more convincing than anything the ERG could ever muster.

The way in which Britain adapts economically will surely influence our political culture and we could very will find there is no appetite to put things back how they were. Calls for rejoining the customs union and single market smack of redundant posturing by those who never accepted Brexit and never will. Though Britain is to undergo a prolonged period of economic and political turmoil, it will be a very different country on the flip side, and if the TCA evolves to become more than it is, the utilitarian argument for single market membership might well evaporate. With the EU lacking a purpose and unable to inspire, most of the Brexit regretters will give way to the pragmatism that out is out. Britain could be a member of a successor entity in Europe, but the Europe of Monnet is on its way to becoming a historical relic.