Foreign policy: a Tory deal

By Richard North - May 24, 2025

Quick off the mark as usual, YouGov has published a poll on the Chagos Islands deal, in which respondents were asked: “From everything you have seen and heard about the issue, do you support or oppose the government’s proposals to give sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius?”.

Unsurprisingly, the majority is against the government’s proposals, with 20 percent “strongly opposed” and 9 percent “somewhat opposed”, totalling 29 percent. By contrast, only 8 percent “strongly support” the government, while 15 percent are in the “somewhat support” camp, giving a total of 23 percent.

The 6 percent difference, taken on its own, would understate the case, as it is evident that those who are opposed feel much stronger about the issue than do supporters, the larger number of whom are pretty lukewarm about the deal.

But the real standout figure from the poll is the “don’t knows”, which comes in at 47 percent, nearly as many and the supporters and opposers combined. Although there may be some “don’t cares” in that number, it is very clear that most people are willing to acknowledge that they are not well-informed on this issue.

As one might expect, there are significant differences in polling as between party affiliations. Conservatives deliver 15 percent “for” and a massive 54 percent “against”. The “don’t knows” drop to 31 percent.

A lukewarm majority of 37 percent of Labour voters support the government proposals, with 12 percent against – equally split between “strongly” and “somewhat”. The “don’t knows” poll the highest of any political group, coming in at a massive 52 percent, easily outscoring the “for” and “against” camps.

The Lib-Dems also favour the proposals overall, 36 percent “for” as opposed to 19 percent “against”, with the “don’t knows” at 45 percent, while Reform voters present the starkest contrast of the field. A mere 10 percent support the government, with only 3 percent in the “strongly” camp. A massive 64 percent oppose – 53 percent “strongly” – while the “don’t knows” drop to 25 percent.

Inevitably, many of the respondents are conveying tribal affiliations but across the board, the “don’t know” figures are high, staggeringly so for Labour voters, who perhaps don’t support the deal but don’t want to go on the record with an “against” vote.

There is one very interesting question which emerges from this poll, as to why there such a big difference in sentiment between Labour and Conservative voters. Some of the difference can undoubtedly be taken to reflect tribal affiliations, but one might also suggest that this reflects a lack of knowledge on the issue.

The rationale for this observation stems from the treatment of the issue by both parties when in office, the point being that both the Tories and Labour, when in office, were in favour of a deal.

The Tory stance was recorded in the Guardian on 4 November 2022, under a headline reading: “UK agrees to negotiate with Mauritius over handover of Chagos Islands”, the sub-head telling us: “Foreign secretary indicates major reversal of policy that could allow return of people expelled by Britain in 1970s”.

This was cited as a “major reversal of policy following years of resistance and legal defeats in international courts”, although at this stage the UK intended to maintain control of the military base in Diego Garcia.

The change of heart had come in a written ministerial statement from the then foreign secretary, James Cleverly. He had said the aim was to reach a settlement with Mauritius “early next year”, which would have had the deal completed in early 2023,

Just before that, the then prime minister Liz Truss, during her short tenure, had met Mauritius officials in New York in the September. The Guardian recorded that the UK had twice been defeated in the international courts over the issue and, with ministers intent on a tilt to the Indo-Pacific, it was felt the British resistance to a handover was hampering the UK’s ability to build alliances in the region. Meanwhile, the US appeared to have received satisfactory assurances about its base.

In his ministerial statement, Cleverly had said: “We will seek to strengthen significantly our cooperation on Indian Ocean security, maritime security and marine protection, the conservation of the environment, climate change, respect for human rights, and to tackle illegal migration, illegal fishing, drugs and arms trafficking, as well as bilateral cooperation on a range of other issues”.

He went on, “The UK and Mauritius have reiterated that any agreement between our two countries will ensure the continued effective operation of the joint UK/US military base on Diego Garcia, which plays a vital role in regional and global security. We recognise the US’s and India’s interests and will keep them informed of progress”.

Much the same detail was also retailed by the BBC, which also had Cleverly saying he wanted to “resolve all outstanding issues” over the archipelago.

The timetable for completion in early 2023, however, was not to come to fruition, but in the July, the Mail had a piece headlined: “British foreign secretary James Cleverly promises to protect ‘unfettered’ US operations at Diego Garcia military base during talks to hand islands to Mauritius as Republicans warn of growing Chinese influence”.

Cleverly talked of going into negotiations “discreetly, privately and professionally”, clearly indicating that talks were in progress, but then, on 22 September, the Oaf Johnson intervened in his column in the Mail, asking: “Why would we be so utterly spineless as to give away the military base that plays such a key role in our alliance with America?”.

Johnson, it seemed, had been told by an informant that, as he put it, “after more than two centuries of uninterrupted British sovereignty we are apparently about to perform a U-turn and abandon the British Indian Ocean Territory”, in what was marked as “a done deal”.

His ignorant diatribe – wrong on multiple issues of fact – was quickly slapped down, with the view expressed that the news of a “done deal” was “excellent”.

It was not to be though. On 1 December 2023, the Telegraph ran an article headed: “UK drops plans to hand Chagos Islands back to Mauritius” – although this was not quite what it seemed.

The sub-head told us that Grant Shapps – then defence secretary – intended to scrap what was termed the Foreign Office’s “Cyprus-style” deal to end British ownership of the islands

What this amounted to was that the ennobled David Cameron, foreign secretary under the Sunak administration, had been approached by Shapps and Oliver Dowden, the then deputy prime minister, and had been “urged” to scrap plans to give the islands away.

All three ministers were understood to be concerned that ceding them to Mauritius, which is allied with China, would endanger the UK’s “special relationship” with the US and its defence interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

At that point, it was “revealed” that the foreign office had drawn up a “Cyprus-style” deal for Mauritius to be given sovereignty over the 60 islands, with Britain to remain in control of the military base.

This mirrored the agreement struck between Britain, Greece, Cyprus and Turkey over two military bases in Cyprus in 1960. This was said to involve the UK making a significant payment, of as much as £2 billion, to the Mauritian government in exchange for use of the military base.

But there was also the essence of the deal to which Starmer has agreed, where all of the territory would be given to Mauritius, and the base leased back to the UK and US for a fixed period. Shapps, however, wanted the islands to remain under British control, rejecting the international court ruling and defying the UN.

From thereon, until the issue re-emerged after the general election, the talks more or less disappeared from public view, although a piece published in June 2024, just before the election, indicated that negotiations were continuing. An early agreement was regarded as “unlikely”.

However, in February 2024, Sunak had spoken with Mauritius prime minister, Pravind Jugnauth, telling him that the UK remained “committed to a mutually beneficial outcome on BIOT and their teams look forward to continuing to work on this”.

And that is the point. Whatever the flak Starmer is taking, the Tories were also set on doing a deal and the indications are that it was not going to be very different from what we have now. In the unlikely event that the Tories had won last years’ election, we could very well be in the same place.