Holland: the fall of Rutte

By Richard North - July 8, 2023

I don’t know whether “ironic” is the right word; perhaps “perverse” would be more appropriate. Either way, it is an odd characteristic of this blog – and the British media in general – that we spend so little time exploring and discussing Dutch politics.

Why that should be is perhaps the subject for a post in its own right some time but, for the moment, events in the country have soared in the media agenda to the extent that we have reports in both the Telegraph and The Times about the collapse of what the Dutch papers call the “Rutte IV cabinet”.

Given that the sheer number of national governments in the EU makes it almost inevitable that one or other might be going through some sort of turmoil at any one time, what makes this especially interesting is that the proximate cause of the collapse of prime minister Mark Rutte’s fourth coalition government is disagreement between the parties over the treatment of asylum seekers.

According to de Volksrant, the collapse has come suddenly and, although I may be wrong, I get the impression that the intensity of the spat which led up to it seems to have caught the players – and the nation – by surprise.

It appears that talks kicked off in earnest last Wednesday, when the leaders of the four coalition parties which made up the government met to discuss asylum policy after Rutte, leader of the VVD party, had threatened to table legislation restricting family reunification for asylum seekers, despite opposition from other key members of his cabinet.

In particular, says de Volksrant, this put Rutte on a “collision course” with his D66 and ChristenUnie partners, two parties for whom the containment of asylum migration is not so high on the political agenda, as opposed to the fourth partner, the CDA, which wants a stricter asylum policy,

It is not the first time, we are told, that the parties have failed to agree on a policy direction to achieve what, by popular demand, amounts to a “grip on migration”, but it is being said that “never before did sparks jump like this week”.

Confirming my impression that events have been largely unexpected, de Volksrant says that “the bomb exploded unexpectedly earlier this week”. During earlier disagreements, it says, the coalition parties had always succeeded in reaching a compromise on asylum issues.

For instance, at the end of 2020, the coalition parties decided to transfer one hundred affected refugees from the Mori refugee camp in Greece to the Netherlands, after the camp had been destroyed by a fire. Initially, the deal was opposed by Rutte’s VVD, among others, but the parties managed to reach an agreement.

This time round, though, Rutte has been taking a hard-headed, “no-compromise” line, demanding a new asylum deal which would restrict family reunification, in order to limit the influx of asylum seekers. The liberal D66 and ChristenUnie parties, apparently, treated this as if Rutte was holding a knife to their throats.

The conservative Rutte himself is under huge pressure from his own supporters to act, to limit asylum seeker numbers – which are forecast to exceed 70,000 this year, up from 46,000 last year. He is also under pressure from the farmers’ party, the Boer Burger Beweging or BBB, which won regional elections in March, and threatens his electoral base.

And the asylum issue is both contentious and highly visible. Last year, as France 24 points out, hundreds of asylum-seekers were forced to sleep outdoors in squalid conditions near an overcrowded reception centre as the number of people arriving in the Netherlands outstripped the available beds.

Dutch aid agencies eventually had to provide emergency assistance and the government was embarrassed when the international agency Medecins sans Frontieres sent in a team to the Netherlands for the first time ever, to assist with migrants’ medical needs.

The rationale for Rutte’s action – which doesn’t get to the heart of the matter – is that family reunification is one of the few tools available to national governments to restrict refugee numbers. The VVD argues that Germany has much stricter conditions for family reunification than the Netherlands, so Rutte’s proposals would simply bring Dutch asylum policy into line with European neighbours.

To the ChristenUnie, though, which styles itself as the “family party”, the idea of limiting family reunification is said to be akin to swearing in church – something (perhaps unlike Welby) they simply will not tolerate.

Thus, after three days of tense meetings, everything came to a head yesterday evening when Rutte was desperately brokering a compromise solution that would keep his coalition together. This would encompass a temporary “emergency brake procedure”, permitting government action in the event of excessive family reunification on top of high numbers of asylum seekers.

At the eleventh hour, however, that proposal could not unify the four parties in the cabinet and the government fell apart. “It’s no secret that the coalition partners have differing opinions about immigration policy. Today we unfortunately have to conclude that those differences have become insurmountable. Therefore, I will tender the resignation of the entire cabinet to the king”, Rutte said in a televised news conference.

The government will keep working on a caretaker basis – unable to decide on new policies – pending new elections which could be held as early as October. Nevertheless, they are not generally expected until November.

Here, things now start to get really interesting, as the emergence of the BBB is the wild card in any future election. Based on its current poll showing, that party is likely to become the largest or – after the VVD – the second largest party in the elections.

But such is the antagonism with the current administration that BBB leader Caroline van der Plas has said the party will refuse to join a cabinet of which Rutte is the prime minister. This could be the end of the line for Rutte as leader: there may not be a Rutte V.

This is more likely as the VVD seems to be champing under the bit of centrist policies, with members yearning for a more right-wing stance, relieved from making compromises on environmental, climate, nitrogen and asylum issues. But to form such a government the BBB is said to be indispensable.

Oddly enough, only a few months ago, some pundits were suggesting that the emergence of the BBB, and a strengthened position in the polls for Geert Wilders anti-immigration PVV party, could shift Rutte leftwards into an alliance with Labour and the Greens.

Such is the unexpected turn of events, though, that there is the possibility of the VVD dumping Rutte who has led the Netherlands since October 2010 in four different coalitions, making him the longest-serving prime minister in Dutch history. Instead, under a new leader, the party could form an alliance with the BBB, together with Wilders’ PVV and even the JA21 party, a conservative offshoot of the far-right Forum for Democracy.

No doubt, the people on the spot will have a better idea of the likelihood of what would amount to a major shift in Dutch party politics, but – from an outsider’s perspective – it is interesting to see how the contentious issue of asylum, within the broader context of immigration policy, is causing political stresses in yet another Western European country.

That the focus should be family reunion is not surprising as this has long been regarded by campaigners as the “Trojan Horse” of immigration. It has not escaped notice that, in the UK, the majority of the “dinghy people” have been young males who, once established, can call in members of their families.

Nothing, however, is being said of the ECHR, for which “family reunification” is a sacred principle, and – as yet – it is far too early to gauge EU reaction. It is relevant to note, though, that last month Rutte visited Tunisia with his Italian counterpart and Von Der Leyen, offering more than €1 billion in financial aid in the hope that its government would stem migration from its shores to Europe.

The fact that EU initiatives themselves have failed to reassure a sizeable segment of the Dutch electorate that the situation is under control, even as both Poland and Hungary are challenging the Commission’s migration policy, says something for the disarray in the EU.

One might also note that the recent French riots had a migration dimension, adding to an already stressful situation, making this issue one of the most contentious currently affecting the EU.

No doubt prime minister Sunak can take some solace from the fact that EU neighbours are so troubled by migration issues, although the fate of the Dutch government might also serve as a warning about their explosive potential and their ability to bring down governments.

Where Rutte leads, Sunak will surely not want to follow.