Politics: an inevitable disappointment

By Richard North - November 8, 2023

In the normal course of events, yesterday was the day the nation turned to the Monarch’s speech in the House of Lords, agog to know what the government has in store for them in the next legislative period.

But, if people did actually care, there is little trace of it in the legacy media and, after reading the actual speech and the government’s briefing notes – all in one handy package – I’m not sure they care now.

Its one singular merit is that it’s managed to piss off Caroline Lucas big time, with the promise of an Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill, but since the notes on it include a commitment to deliver net-zero “by 2050”, there’s nothing much to write home about.

Probably, the best that can be said of the package is that it encompasses a number of small measures – 21 in all. That happens to be the lowest number for a parliamentary session since 2014, and even then seven Bills have been carried over from the last session.

Most are relatively uncontentious, largely addressing glitches in administrative Britain, so they will fail to set the political world on fire. The list will certainly not enthuse people to go rushing to the polls, whenever the general election might be, to vote for Sunak.

Probably the longest and most complex measure is the Data Protection and Digital Information Bill, replacing the existing data protection regime which the UK inherited from the EU. Such is the complexity though, that even though it has been carried over from the last session, it probably won’t finish its passage before the election and will automatically fall.

Even the five dog-whistle provisions on “justice and security”, listed under the heading “keeping people safe”, is hardly the stuff of dreams. There is a commitment to lock up certain classes of criminal for longer, specifically killers convicted of the most horrific murders, who will never be released from jail. And rapists and other serious sexual offenders will not be let out early from prison sentences.

All this looks a bit hollow, though, when the prisons are packed to capacity and prisoners are being released early to relieve overcrowding, and judges are being advised not to send certain types of criminals to jail because there is no room for them.

As to the generalities, many pundits point out the obvious, that this first King’s Speech is also Sunak’s first legislative programme read out by the monarch. It will be the last before the next election and may well, therefore, be Sunak’s first, last and only. With its slender content, some think that the prime minister has missed his chance to turn the tables on Labour and set the agenda for the next election.

These pundits are probably right, retailing Tory backbencher sentiment that this was yet another opportunity missed. After the Conservative Party conference had descended into a row over HS2, the King’s Speech had been seen as another potentially pivotal moment for Sunak, but it was not to be.

The Times cites an anonymous former minister who ruminates on the “Party conference, the aborted reshuffle and now the King’s Speech”. “None of those events in themselves would have been a game changer”, the ex-minister says, “but taken together they could have been”.

It isn’t only The Times which is making this point though. The Guardian’s critique notes: “King’s speech holds little to pull in votes for a PM running out of time”, suggesting that “The lack of new ideas on key issues – the NHS, environment, education and cost of living – could become Sunak’s biggest weakness at the polls”.

What is perhaps most telling about the legislative programme, said the Guardian is that there is very little attention paid to some of the issues that voters care about the most.

There was an “absence of measures to help the NHS beyond the smoking ban, nothing concrete on education, little on the environment except for a long-delayed animal welfare bill, no improvements to employment rights, nor any direct measures to address the cost-of-living crisis”.

In many ways this is a huge disappointment, to those few people who still have any expectations of politicians and the political process – less than the fingers on the hand of an AI generated Palestinian refugee.

Apart from the Guardian list, in no particular order, Sunak could have proposed measures to deal with the structures, performance, financing and regulation of privatised water and waste companies, in a bid to bring to a halt the excessing sewage discharges, and to speed up the water leakage reduction programme – putting some serious regulatory teeth into the ongoing targets.

Speaking of financing, something urgently needed to be done about local authority debt, with the system in crisis and many more councils expected to fail.

At the moment, it is quite unrealistic to expect local authorities to bear the massive and growing financial burdens of child and adult care, without embarking on fundamental reforms of both systems, as well as the system that is supposed to pay for it – not least of which is the need to reinstate controls to prevent councils from embarking on massive capital speculation schemes.

Sunak is nevertheless keen to claim that his government is “stopping the boats” – even if the downturn is probably temporary – thus making a big deal about illegal immigration. But was it really to much to expect that he might have put some measures in place to curtail legal immigration, and especially the abuse of the university system.

And, while he was about it, he might have tackled the training of indigenous student nurses and doctors, outlawing artificially low quotas and making provision for sufficient training places. He could also have removed the “degree only” requirement for registered nurses.

Of course, if Sunak had really wanted to make waves, he might have proposed the abolition of the Climate Change Act, and with it net zero. He might also have mandated a statutory energy policy based on nuclear power – and done something to address the complex and inequitable energy pricing system, removing in their totality all “green” subsidies.

That these things were never going to happen strikes at the rot at the heart of UK politics. Measures which would probably be wildly popular would never get anywhere near the legislative calendar and have zero chance of getting onto the statute book.

With a little bit of effort, I could have drummed up several dozen proposals which would liven up any King’s Speech and fortify a manifesto – as I have done in the past. But there’s no real point. The political classes are not in the market for ideas, and they are even less concerned about what people actually think.

So, the essence of the speech is a parade of horse-drawn carriages to deliver a fabulously rich man to a crumbling cash sink-hole, to talk about autonomous cars, and emote about easing the cost of living for families, while wearing a hat which is probably worth more than Wales.

At least he finished off his speech by saying: “I pray that the blessing of Almighty God may rest upon your counsels”. So far, the reference to Allah isn’t mandatory.

That leaves the prime minister’s next chance to shine a full-blown reshuffle – if he dares – and the autumn statement in the coming weeks. Tory MPs, those who haven’t already given up, will be hoping for a sign of tax cuts to come or other voter-friendly measures to help people struggling with the effects of inflation.

Whether that is enough to turn the electoral tide is anyone’s guess, but there can hardly be anyone who is holding their breath.