Politics: radical variegation

By Richard North - February 25, 2026

Today is the last full day of campaigning in the Gorton and Denton constituency for what promises to be one of the most interesting by-elections in decades.

As a three-party race, it remains impossible to predict although at this late stage, the left-leaning Byline Times together with Forward Democracy have commissioned an Opinium poll.

Although Opinium are not to release their data tables until later today, the pollster has enough residual professionalism to concede that the final result is “too close to call” as it is “not possible reliably to separate the three parties statistically into any order” given the closeness of the vote.

That is unsurprising. The poll relied on a mere 339 respondents who gave voting intentions, and only one point separates the top three parties, with the Greens and Labour both on 28 percent and Reform “trailing” on 27 percent. The margins of error, therefore, will be greater than the recorded differences.

Only when the results are adjusted for those likely to vote (an unspecified number) does the Green Party creep ahead on 30 percent, with Reform and Labour sharing second place on 28 percent. But, as we are not given the underlying data, it is impossible to judge the accuracy of the prediction.

However, when I did a poll analysis on Saturday, I ventured the possibility of real-world polling errors which would understate the favourable effect of a low turnout on the Reform vote.

Notwithstanding this, the current poll suggests that tactical voting could “easily swing” the contest, the data having anti-Reform voters significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour.

We are told that around two thirds (66 percent) of those Labour and Lib-Dem voters surveyed said they would be prepared to switch to the Greens if they were the party most likely to beat Reform, compared to just 41 percent of Green and Lib Dem voters who said they would switch to Labour to defeat Farage’s party.

Whether this will materialise is anyone’s guess although experience indicates that tactical voting is often talked up, but difficult to demonstrate in most election results. Some voters may be more sophisticated than others, but there is little to indicate that this constituency is anything special.

As to the Greens, they are trying to write Labour out of the contest, a stance helpfully amplified by the Guardian and also the Financial Times, the latter telling all with an article headlined: “‘Labour are now irrelevant here’: Greens eye Manchester by-election victory”, using a quote from Zack Polanski, whose real name is David Paulden.

Also projecting a pro-immigration stance, the party is relying heavily on the Muslim vote, having reinvented itself as a pro-Muslim party. It is fighting an openly sectarian campaign, exploiting to the Gaza issue to curry favour.

This is explored in a long article in The Times, which points out that about 30 percent of the voters in the constituency are Muslim, with the party holding its first rally at the Pakistani Community Centre in Stockport, where Polanski was joined by Salma Yaqoob, a former leader of Galloway’s Respect Party who has since been associated with Your Party, started by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana.

Polanski is unashamedly endorsing the sectarian pitch, saying: “We’ll want people on the ground to know our position on Gaza, that we’ve stood with the Palestinian people”.

He adds: “Gorton & Denton has a large Muslim population. Of course, we want to speak to everyone, and it’s not just people who are Muslim who care about people’s freedom and people’s human rights. But I imagine that will certainly be an element in the contest”.

In a move which may not play too well with the rest of the constituency, though, one Green by-election leaflet has been published partly in Urdu, declaring: “Labour should be punished for Gaza”, featuring a photo of candidate Hannah Spencer wearing a red and black keffiyeh while posing in front of a mosque. The party also released a video yesterday, entirely in Urdu, with a clip of Spencer introducing herself in that language.

However, making such an overt pitch for the Muslim vote may backfire, not only by alienating other voters but also in the implied assumption that the Muslim community is homogenous.

But, apart from the national differences, with a split between Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, there is also in Manchester a religious divide in the largely Sunni community. Mosques – which are highly influential in shaping the Muslim vote – are split between the puritanical Salafi and the more moderate Barelvi sub-sects.

It is highly unlikely, therefore, that the whole Muslim community will unite behind a woman candidate (no matter how much she might prostrate herself – pictured), and that is without taking into account tribal loyalties where the ties to Labour run deep, with a network of around 25 Muslim councillors in the 96-member Manchester City Council.

Certainly, the Independent thinks Labour is in with a chance, drawing attention to Starmer’s recent surprise appearance in the constituency, provoking speculation that the party might actually hold one of its safest seats.

Given the unpredictable results and the possibility of dramatic upsets, prime ministers (of both parties) traditionally tend to distance themselves from by-elections and rarely visit constituencies even in good times, in order to insulate themselves from adverse results.

Certainly, the paper concedes that a win is possible, especially (and despite Green Party claims) as it is still a three-way fight in a constituency that Labour have represented for decades. It is possible to imagine, it says, circumstances in which a degree of confusion in tactical voting might conceivably lead to Labour holding the seat.

More realistically, though, it thinks that the best Labour can hope for is to snatch second place from Reform, and that might be why the party leader was in the area rallying his troops – although he didn’t venture out to meet any actual voters.

Third place with 20 percent of the vote wouldn’t be a shock; second with 30 per cent might be a relief, although the Mandelson drama may cast a long shadow, further tarnishing the Labour brand.

If the experience of The Times is any guide, though, where its reporter struggled to find “a loud and proud Labour voter”, even third place might be a blessing.

Nevertheless, a party source tells the paper that its internal polling suggests it has about 25,000 potential voters in the seat. “It all depends on turnout”, the source says, “but obviously that gives us reason for optimism”. The Muslim factor isn’t mentioned.

Reform, if it is to prevail, not only has to beat Labour but also the Greens, although, if Labour do better than predicted, that could harm the Greens and let Reform in through the middle.

While Farage’s party did overturn a massive Labour majority to take Runcorn and Helsby last May, it was only by six votes. This tends to reinforce the view that this will be a very tight contest.

What is different here (as well as the strong Green presence) is the large Muslim community. Which way the Muslims vote, and whether their vote splits, could have a decisive influence on the outcome, vying with the turnout effect.

Some of the party’s recent policy announcements will have an effect, although it is too early to say. The latest pledge by Richard Tice to scrap flagship Labour worker and renters’ protections may not go down too well in a predominantly Labour area.

There is always the possibility that the spat with Lowe’s Restore Britain might have a marginal effect, as might the presence of Ben Habibs’s Advance party candidate, Nick Buckley, who has a strong local following. In a seat where the result could turn on a handful of votes, this could make the difference.

Interestingly the Independent concedes that turnout will be crucial. Reform, it says, will be hoping to persuade voters who generally do not vote at all that this time it will be worth their while. This, it adds, has been a key factor in previous wins for Farage.

As to the broader implications of the result, it will probably confirm that which is already well-known: that Labour is deeply unpopular. More importantly, it will reinforce the perception that electoral politics in Britain is becoming a kaleidoscopic array of different contests rather than just a national fight between Labour and the Conservatives.

Throw in the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system and tactical voting and, says the paper, the next general election will be the hardest to predict for many decades. Gorton and Denton, the paper adds, is just the latest episode in a radical variegation of the electoral landscape.