Politics: “seen as threatening”

By Richard North - June 26, 2024

It is my considered position that The Muslim Vote will have far more influence on the outcome of this general election, and subsequent events, than the Reform Party, not least because I expect Muslim voters to return far more MPs than will the supposed “insurgent” party.

There is another facet to my estimation though. Since 2005, the main impact of the succession of insurgent parties – ranging from Ukip (and to a small effect the BNP) to the Brexit Party and then Reform – has been damage the electoral prospects of the Conservatives through the so-called “Ukip effect”.

This might have worked in 2010, where there is good evidence that the combined effects of Ukip and the BNP deprived the David Cameron’s Conservatives of an overall majority, forcing them into an unholy alliance with the Lib-Dems.

Yet, despite Ukip gaining in strength for the next election, peaking in 2015, its effect was relatively marginal, entirely due to the collapse of the Lib-Dem vote, which largely offset the increased Ukip vote. This was just as well for, if Farage had succeeded in blocking a new Tory government, we perhaps would not have had the referendum in 2016.

When it comes to the current election, though, the polls are indicating that the Conservative vote has collapsed of its own accord, so much so that in many constituencies, the effect of Reform in cutting it still further is largely irrelevant. In many local contests, it is anticipated that, even if the Tories could capture the entire Reform vote, it would make little difference to the final score.

The more significant effect, therefore, is reckoned by some to come after the election when a victorious Farage is supposed to ascend to the House of Commons at the head of a phalanx of newly-minted Reform MPs, ready by 2029 to take over the Conservatives. He would then lead a reformed, right-wing party back to power, installing himself as prime minister.

However, back in the real world, the only game in town will be the ability to influence the Labour Party as it starts up a new government in early July. And, in terms of influence, The Muslim Vote is to Labour as Farage’s Reform is to the Tories.

In other words, post-election, Reform will have very little influence on the new government and depending on their performance at the election, the Muslims could be in a powerful position, holding the balance of power.

Despite all this, the national media has chosen to obsess over the activities of Reform, affording only sporadic attention to Muslim activities, and even then failing to understand, or report on, the bigger picture – leaving most of the coverage to the foreign media, the local press and specialist, sectoral journals.

Carrying on in this vein is the Christian Science Monitor, on the face of it an unlikely source of information except that, during the Iraq counterinsurgency- through 2003 to 2010 – I often found the CSM to be the best informed of all the media on the activities of the British military and the actions of the “militants”.

Filling for the British media with a narrative, the like of which we have not seen elsewhere, contributor Hasan Ali, under the headline, “In British elections, Muslim voters seek candidates who care about Gaza”, starts with recent events in Slough, details which I covered on 17 June.

What the CSM clearly does is afford the same level of importance to this constituency as did I, signalling the significance of Muslim activities. As an aside, although commenters on this blog clearly prefer to immerse themselves in the details of Ukraine, there seems to be an inverse correlation between the number of comments and the visits.

Generally, the fewer the comments, the higher the hit rate so that, while my piece on Slough attracted 43 comments compared with 239 on my recent piece on Ukraine, it was Slough which attracted the greatest overall interest from readers. And, given the lamentable standard of some comments, I think I’d rather have the higher number of readers.

As for the CSM, it cites Abubakr Nanabawa, the spokesman for TMV, who declares that: “This election signals a shift for Muslims – no more political apathy”, adding: “We will no longer tolerate being taken for granted. We are a powerful, united force of 4 million acting in unison.”

The journal notes of Slough that Muslims make up more than a quarter of registered voters in the constituency, asserting that, if the candidate endorsed by TMV, Azhar Chohan. is able to galvanize the community, “he could cause an upset”.

It also draws a parallel with February, when the Workers Party of Britain leader, George Galloway, won a by-election in Rochdale by targeting Muslim voters, standing on an overtly pro-Palestinian platform. That victory, the journal says, has inspired many pro-cease-fire candidates to stand in the general election.

Looking at the bigger picture, which so few media reports do, the journal tells us that the Conservatives are widely expected to suffer a crushing defeat at the general election on 4 July. But, it says, the size of Labour’s majority may depend on whether independents endorsed by The Muslim Vote – only half of whom are in fact Muslims themselves – can turn events in the Middle East to their advantage on polling day.

With detail also lacking elsewhere, it goes on to say that The Muslim Vote has identified dozens of constituencies where Muslims make up a large enough share of the electorate to potentially sway the result. In Newcastle Central & West, where Muslims form around 12 percent of the total electorate, the organisation has lent its support to Yvonne Ridley, a journalist and broadcaster who converted to Islam in 2003.

“The Muslim community has seen the way that governments and leaders have reacted to Gaza, and we can all see what’s happening there for what it is, which is a genocide”, Ridley says. “And yet our leaders condemn us for marching, condemn us for protesting and we know what we’re doing is the right thing”.

The Muslim Vote, and its effort to organize Muslims into a coherent political force, we are told, “have attracted considerable controversy” – albeit largely at a local level. In Slough, the incumbent, Labour’s Mr. Dhesi, has accused Chohan of “trying to toxify” the town and “divide our diverse community by importing the toxic politics of persuading people to vote based on religion”.

Farage is cited as accusing Muslims of indulging in sectarian politics and of not sharing British values. But the journal turns to Anas Altikriti to complain that such criticisms are rooted in a historical malaise.

“Every single time the Muslim community … tries to organize, it’s the same old,” says Altikriti, who advises TMV. “It’s all of a sudden a conspiracy and an attempt to take over. And that pertains to a much bigger and deeper and older problem that has roots in the … colonial perception of the other”.

We then get Faisal Hanif, a researcher at the Centre for Media Monitoring who tracks the way Muslims are portrayed in the British media. The themes of sectarianism and disloyalty to Britain have emerged in many discussions about the Muslim electorate, he says. “Muslims deciding what they care about and who they want to vote for, “is seen as threatening”.

Presumably calculated not to be threatening – in a classic example for failing to see the bigger picture – right on cue we have the Guardian using Neha Gohil, its community affairs correspondent to write a soft-focus piece under the heading “‘People feel very betrayed’: the British Palestinian out to unseat Labour’s Wes Streeting in Ilford”.

This is about 23-year-old Leanne Mohamad, who gave up her Labour membership last year and believes she is in a two-horse race in an east London seat. And despite being the TMV endorsed candidate for Ilford North, in the long piece there is no mention of TMV or the national dimensions and the broader Muslim agenda.

Instead, Gohil gives Mohamad the opportunity to tell what makes her different. She says: “I’m young, I’m a Muslim, a visible Muslim woman, I am Palestinian and I am local. I am actually from my community. I’m not being parachuted in. I’m not here to represent corporate interests or party agendas, I’m simply here to represent my people. I’m not subjected to any party lines or party whips, so that’s what makes me different – a true voice of the people by the people”.

By representing “her people”, of course, she means Muslims. Non-Muslim constituents, especially if they take a pro-Israel line, are effectively disfranchised. And we’re not supposed to see this as “threatening”.

But even at a local level. Mohamad’s fight has a national importance. With Wes Streeting in trouble over women’s rights, he is being squeezed by both women voters and the Muslims. Defending a majority of 5,198, with over 25,000 Muslims in the constituency, he could become a high-profile casualty.

But never mind this. Farage is going to stop the boats.