Politics: the tides of war

By Richard North - February 28, 2022

The Sunday Times had an interesting piece yesterday suggesting that Vladimir Putin may have lost his mind, his determination to defy all reason and wage war on Ukraine raising doubt about his mental health.

This same Vladimir Putin has now ordered his defence minister and the chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces “to put the deterrence forces of the Russian army into a special mode of combat service” – the highest state of nuclear alert in the country. We now have shades of Dr Strangelove, with a madman locked in his bunker, ready to start a nuclear war.

Unsurprisingly, the US and Nato both accused Putin of “totally unacceptable” escalation and the US made it clear that it would keep up its support of Ukraine and punitive measures on Russia. Von der Leyen, for the European Commission then went on to announce that the EU was proposing to fund arms supplies to Ukraine, declaring that the country is “one of us and we want them in”, indicating that it should be given candidacy for EU membership.

With the EU also announcing unprecedented new measures against Moscow, including the banning of all Russian aircraft in the airspace of Member States, one might observe that, if Putin wasn’t already pissed, he certainly is now. But, with no sense of dread abroad, of the like we experienced in the 1962 Cuba Missile Crisis, it is perhaps not yet time to clear out the nuclear bunkers and oil the blast door hinges.

First, we have Ukrainian president Zelensky announce that a delegation from his government would meet Russian officials on his country’s border with Belarus, on the river Pripyat, for peace negotiations “without preconditions”. Zelensky confided that he had no great hopes of anything coming from these talks, but wanted to show his people he had tried.

Belarus, meanwhile, has announced it will renounce its non-nuclear and neutral status, allowing Russia to place nuclear weapons on its territory. It claims a mandate from a referendum held on 27 February when 65.16 percent of citizens allegedly supported these constitutional amendments. Dictator Alexander Lukashenko, we are told, also significantly extended his executive powers.

The Mail now tells us that Ukraine has confirmed that a missile that struck its Zhytomyr airbase 160 km west of Kiev – causing a huge explosion – was fired from Belarus. The Russians had been targeting bases all day in order to take out the remaining Ukrainian air force, launching five air and 16 missile strikes across Ukraine.

With the hope that air superiority is close to being achieved, Lukashenko is warning that the war will become a “meat grinder” as his special forces were seen loading into aircraft in preparation for what is said to be another, and possibly final air assault on Kiev

Down on the ground, also in the headlines is the news, originally offered by Reuters, of a 5km column of Russian ground forces detected on route P02 from Chernobyl into Kiev.

This came from satellite imagery taken on Sunday and released by Maxar Technologies, which showed fuel and other trucks, as well as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and self-propelled artillery, lining the road northeast of the city of Ivankiv. Reports speak of the column “moving toward” Kiev, with approximately 64 km to go, analogous to the 30 Corps attack on Arnhem in 1944, this time with Lukashenko’s airborne forces paving the way.

However, readers will recall that Ivankiv is where, on Friday, Ukrainian forces blew up the bridge spanning the Teteriv River, blocking a column of Russian tanks. We reported this on Saturday, recording this as one of two bridges blown – the other on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border at the Kamaryn-Slavutich checkpoints – effectively bottling up the Russian armoured thrusts coming through the northern border from Belarus.

On Saturday, there was another bridge demolition, this one on route E40, the Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway, near the village of Stoyanka, reported by local media. Only a few miles to the west of Kiev, this closed off another route into the capital.

Late on Sunday, fierce battles were then reported taking place in Makariv village some 60 km from Kiev, also on route E40. Previously the Ukrainian Army Forces had reported the enemy using children and women to protect their vehicles from Ukraine’s shelling.

Earlier on Sunday, news came in of a Russian armoured column destroyed on the edge of Kiev, not far from the suburban town of Bucha, on the E373. With that also came the news that the bridge between the villages of Dymer and Irpin has been blown up, blocking off any further progress from the direction of Bucha.

What we have, therefore, is the battle of the bridges, with the southwards Russian thrusts on Kiev so far blocked by Ukrainian forces, with timely and selective demolitions. Thus, if the column detected by the satellite imagery is to get anywhere, it needs a substantial amount of bridging gear. Current reports, though, suggest that the Russians are trying to cross the Irpin River upstream with a pontoon bridge supposedly at Demydiv, so the gear must be available.

If they fail in this, the Russians have to get over the Teteriv River at Ivankiv – and the blockage is substantial (pictured). Even then their troubles will not be over. A few miles down route P02 there is the Zdvyzh River to cross, just before the village of Katiuzhanka. A blown bridge there would form another substantial obstacle.

Should they finally surmount that, there is the Irpin River again, a mile or so short of the village of Lyutizh, itself still 30 km from Kiev. The bridge there is substantial and there are extensive stretches of boggy ground to either side of the road, intersected by deep drainage channels. Going off-road could have dire consequences.

From where the Chernobyl column is at the moment, running down the west side of the Dnieper, there is no alternative route into Kiev that doesn’t hit other water features. It isn’t going anywhere soon. What is more worrying is the column of tanks and armoured vehicles spotted yesterday in the Ukrainian town of Bakhmach, almost 350 km due west of Belgorod, on the edge of the Chernihiv Oblast, 180 km northeast of Kiev.

That column, as we observed yesterday, is well south of the Desna River, by-passing the contested city of Chernihiv – where fighting has continued. Potentially on a direct route to Kiev, there are few natural obstacles between this column and the eastern part of the capital. It would need to cross at least one major bridge to get into Kiev proper though, on the west bank where all the governments are situated.

Thus, although we get the Institute for the Study of War tell us that Russian troops have not yet committed heavy armour and artillery forces to the fighting in Kiev, and will likely need to do in order to take the city, it hasn’t been for want of trying.

While some now aver that Russian troops have gone into “tactical retreat” near Kiev and Kharkiv, the ISW suggest that the Russians might have been conducting an “operational pause” on the Kiev axis, to deploy additional supplies and forces forward. They “will likely resume offensive operations against Kiev in the next 24 hours”. But, before that happens – the northeast thrust notwithstanding – there are a few rivers to cross.

Thus, despite fighting intensifying elsewhere, especially in the south and east, as well as in Kharkiv where both sides have had some local successes, there is a feeling abroad that Ukraine is succeeding in beating back the invasion, with talk of the Russian blitzkrieg “faltering”.

There have been reports of tactical blunders, lost and demoralised Russian troops, small-scale surrenders, and of acute supply difficulties, poor coordination and planning. All this has contributed to a growing sense of euphoria, bolstered by multiple commitments from Western countries to up the flow of arms and aid, while expectations of the sanctions having an impact are high.

Yet Zelensky himself is warning that the next 24 hours could be critical, and he is unlikely to be wrong. Tides of war can change very quickly, and Putin’s entire reputation – and even his tenure in office – is at stake. With more resources thrown in, and the forces of Belarus becoming available, there is a real danger that we could soon be seeing a very different picture, as the madman casts his next throw and unleashes a rain of terror.

While the Ukrainians were not to be under-estimated, neither is the determination of a madman on the ropes.