Ukraine: no happy endings

By Richard North - April 5, 2022

In a quality piece of forensic journalism, the New York Times has put to bed any idea that the Ukrainians have been embellishing the evidence on the streets of Bucha.

A review of satellite imagery (pictured) cross-referred with videos taken during the occupation show that many of the bodies of civilians recently filmed have been in place for more than three weeks – despite Russians’ insistence that scenes had been “staged” after their military had left town. A side-by-side comparison is shown here.

The latest horror is the discovery of a torture chamber in the basement of a children’s health centre in Bucha. Law enforcement officers found the bodies of five murdered men. Their hands were tied and they appeared to have been tortured. Including these five, volunteers have begun the gruesome task of recovering bodies. Large numbers are being found, said to be “in the hundreds, not dozens”.

There are strong expectations now that Bucha – which Zelensky visited yesterday – is only the tip of an iceberg. And the Ukrainian president’s claims that Russia is undertaking a process of “genocide” look more credible by the day, and especially given an article published on the Ria Novosti website setting out plans which amount to the elimination of Ukraine.

Discussing the “denazification of Ukraine”, author Tymofiy Sergiytsev states that a total lustration (cleansing) must be conducted. Any organisations related to Nazism, he writes, must be prohibited and liquidated.

However, he goes on to say, both the elites and a significant part of the ordinary people are considered passive Nazis and are guilty. “They supported and followed the Nazi regime. Fair punishment of this part of population can be seen an inevitable burden of waging a just war against the Nazi system, wherever possible as carefully and scrupulously with regard civilians”.

He then adds that the further denazification of this part of the population includes “re-education”, which can be achieved through ideological repression (suffocation) of Nazi politics and severe censorship, both in the political and in the educational and cultural spheres.

“Denazification”, he concluded, “will inevitably result in de-Ukrainization, the abandoning of the full-scale artificial development, introduced by the Soviet government, of the ethnic component of the population’s self-identification based on the historically formed territories of ‘Malorossiya’ (little Russia) and ‘Novorossiya’ (new Russia)”.

Back on planet Earth, Biden is calling for Putin to face a war crimes tribunal. And the killings – openly referred to by many as “atrocities”, without troubling to add the label “alleged” – are set to open the way for a new round of sanctions which may go so far as to embrace restrictions on the purchase of Russian gas and oil.

The US, through national security adviser Jake Sullivan, has given notice that it intends to announce further sanctions this week. At the moment, says Sullivan, “we are coordinating with our allies and partners on what the exact parameters of that will be”.

Sentiment certainly seems to be firming up across the board, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola has called for an “immediate adoption of a new package of forceful sanctions” against Russia, so that Moscow’s decision to invade Ukraine is seen to be “the costliest mistake that the Kremlin has ever made”.

Whatever the outcome of continuous and sometimes tense negotiations between Nato/EU partners, Zelenski can now be assured a continued flow of weapons and supplies to feed a military situation that is changing so fast that the pundits can scarcely keep up with developments.

For instance, a recent four-day wargame hosted by the Marine Corps University, completed on 28 March, was predicting that the Russian-Ukrainian front lines would barely budge over the next year, the only major exception being “a local Ukrainian counterattack that retook a sizeable amount of territory north-west of Kiev”.

The Russians, they suggested, could no longer sustain the four major offensives initiated at the start of the war. In their view, just sustaining isolation attempts on Kiev and Kharkiv would consume and fix the majority of Russia’s available combat power.

A mere week later, the Russians have abandoned their positions in the Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts, leaving the defence reporter at the Kyiv Independent to estimate that the Russians had withdrawn from nearly 40 percent of the territories they had occupied in Ukraine since 24 February.

This coincides with the Russian pretence that their retreat brings to an end “phase 1” of their “operation”, glossing over the fact that the original plan had been to take Kiev by a coup de main, decapitate the Ukrainian government and impose their own puppet administration. Instead, they argue, somewhat implausibly, that the attempted assault on Kiev and other northern cities was merely an attempt to tie up Ukrainian forces in order to prevent reinforcement of formations in Donbass.

At least the withdrawal acknowledges the Marine Corps University’s view that the Russians do not have the combat power to sustain offensives on multiple fronts. But we have since learned that Russia is starting to mobilise reservists, hoping to recruit an additional 60,000 troops.

Military authorities intend to make good losses in equipment by reactivating obsolete equipment currently in storage. Although some types have been stored in bases and warehouses for more than 30 years, the plan is to restore their functionality and put them back on the front line.

With the main effort focused on the east, the Ukraine defence ministry is warning that the Russians are preparing to capture Kharkiv, reinforcing groups of troops from the Slobozhansky and Donetsk operational districts. Intelligence point to the establishment of logistics routes, stockpiling of ammunition, missiles and fuel, and the preparation of medical facilities to receive large numbers of wounded.

It is perhaps germane to note that the Russian recapture of Kharkiv in 1943 cost over 150,000 Red Army casualties, albeit against significant German forces. But there are serious questions about the capability of the Russians to sustain an all-out assault on a city the size of Kharkiv which, before the war, had a population of 1.4 million.

Kharkiv military administration Oleg Sinegubov does not rate the Russian chances. At present, he says, their forces cannot approach the city.

“Currently our armed forces are holding their positions, and in some directions we are pushing the enemy out of Kharkiv’s towns – those being towards Dergachiv and Rohgan”, he adds. “At the same time we have a very good understanding of the enemy’s  plans, capabilities, manoeuvres and groupings. And of course, our armed forces are preparing for all of this”.

Sinegubov said that the most active combat zones are currently in the area of occupied Izyum and its suburbs. There the invaders are currently focusing a significant part of their armed force in order to make a break for the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

This is a clear illustration of how the Ukrainian army is punching above its weight. But it lacks the offensive power to confront the Russians head-on, and re-take contested territory. All the indicators, therefore, point to a long, bloody war of attrition.

Meanwhile, things do not seem to be going well for the Ukrainians in Mariupol, with Russian sources claiming that 267 soldiers from Ukrainian 503rd Marines Battalion have surrendered in the city. It is hard, though, to get more details from the embattled city, with US officials stating that the “bitter fight” continues, and that “there are no indications that the Russians have made any progress” in taking the city.

If that is the case, it underlines the difficulties in capturing cities held by a determined opposition and, even if the Russians do eventually prevail, the cost will have been considerable. This does not bode well for their ambitions in Kharkiv, or for Putin’s plans for the occupation of the entire administrative areas of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Nothing, therefore, suggests that we are anywhere close to a resolution of this miserable war. Sooner or later, though – as other issues crowd in – we will have to decide whether a long, festering war is to become part of the political backdrop of Europe, or we up the ante and bring it to an end.

Sadly, there are no easy choices or happy endings.