Ukraine: retaliation

By Richard North - November 21, 2024

Three days before the news that Ukraine had launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets inside Russia, the Biden administration was on record as approving the use of US-built ATACMS for hitting targets inside Russia.

Nothing was said at the time about approving Storm Shadow but it must be presumed that either then or very quickly afterwards, Biden lifted the restrictions on this weapon system, allowing Starmer to go ahead and give the green light to Zelensky.

Biden’s necessary role in this hasn’t been made clear in all reports, but earlier in September, it transpired that the missile required the US-developed terrain contour mapping system for guidance and targeting, for which use specific US permission is required.

Now that permission has evidently been given, it sems that twelve missiles have been launched against a Russian target in the Kursk oblast. Details are sketchy but it appears that they were aimed at a command complex, said to be near the village of Maryino – some 80Km west of the city of Kursk – housing the generals directing operations in the area.

Interestingly – according to CNN, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, has refused to confirm or deny the use of the weapons, and the British government has not formally confirmed their use.

If, as seems probable, though, they have been deployed, one hopes for the British taxpayers’ sake that the targets were worthwhile. The Mail suggests that each missile costs £2.54 million, which means that the attack cost slightly more than £30 million in weaponry alone. It may even have cost more than the value of the targets.

It now remains to be seen what, if any, specific action Putin orders, by way of retaliation. The Times explores this in detail, noting that while Putin has artfully lowered the threshold for nuclear strikes, it is unlikely that nuclear weapons will be used.

Rather, the paper thinks that “hybrid warfare” – cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, sabotage and even targeted assassinations – is more likely. There are multiple options in Russia’s repertoire and, says The Times, there is already ample evidence that the Kremlin is prepared to take action.

Other retaliatory action, it suggests, might be more support from Russia for Iran and its proxies, while Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, believes that the GRU – Russia’s military intelligence agency – may resort to using criminal organisations to cause “sustained mayhem on British and European streets”.

As to the overall effect of the use of Storm Shadow missiles, there seems to be a general consensus, which fits with my view that they are unlikely to be a game-changer, not least because the UK will be unable to supply enough to make a difference.

In all probability though, Ukraine is losing the war too fast for any weapon system to make any significant difference. Even the BBC is acknowledging that Zelensky’s Kursk “gamble” has failed, citing one unnamed “expert” who is calling it a “strategic catastrophe”.

The broadcaster also cites a raft of “experts” to tell us something which has been evident from some time, that the Ukraine front could “collapse” as Russian gains accelerate, partly due to the fact that reserves have been denuded as AFU troops have been rushed to the Kursk salient.

With two months to go to president-elect Trump’s inauguration, it is now a race against time to see whether Ukraine can consolidate its position in the Kursk oblast long enough for it to provide a bargaining chip for future talks when Trump imposes a standstill, as he is expected to do.

From the New York Times, we also learn that Biden has not limited himself just to approving the extended use of long-range weapons. He has also sanctioned the supply of anti-personnel mines, something the US has been reluctant to do, so far, because of the devastating post-conflict effects of these weapons on civilians.

This development is also picked up by the BBC, which remarks that the move is seen as an attempt to slow down the Russian advance, with the NYT confirming the strategic roles of the weapons. Officials say that allowing Ukraine to maintain its hold over the Kursk region could help to bolster Kiev’s position in cease-fire or peace negotiations.

Nevertheless, the US is not expecting an entirely free pass from its further interventions. Out of what officials say is an “abundance of caution”, the US embassy in Kiev has been evacuated and employees are being instructed to “shelter in place”.

Other Western nations, it seems, are also closing down their embassies, including Italy, Spain and Greece. This, it turns out, is not unrelated to the deployment against Russian territory of long-range weapons.

While not threatening specific action against Ukraine’s allies, we are told that Russia is threatening to strike directly against Kiev, using its RS-26 Rubezh ICBMs.

Although more normally deployed as part of Russia’s intermediate range nuclear arsenal, these missiles are also capable of delivering potent conventional warheads, three times the weight of that carried by the Iskander missile, potentially up to 1,200kg – over a tonne of explosive power (launcher pictured).

Its hypersonic performance makes interception difficult and, combined with multiple drone attacks and more conventional missiles, it could add an intolerable layer of misery to the Ukrainian capital, already suffering from routine power outages, as a result of Russian attacks on the electricity infrastructure.

Maybe, if this happens, Russia will deem that honour is satisfied and will go no further in order to extract revenge, assuming that the attacks by long-range weaponry on its territory don’t intensify.

With or without that, Russia seems confident enough to be making plans for Ukraine after the fighting has stopped. The Kviv Independent tells us that it may try to convey to US leadership its plan for a new world order up to the year 2045, including a scheme to break Ukraine up into three parts.

The country’s eastern regions, including partially and fully Russian-occupied territories, would be annexed by Russia. The western lands would be “disputed territories” that could be claimed by neighbouring countries, including Poland, Hungary, and Romania. The remaining territory, including the capital, would become a Russian-controlled puppet state.

Needless to say, this also includes the rejection of European and Euro-Atlantic integration and requires a Russian military presence (placement of military bases) in Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia.

According to the Interfax agency, the Kremlin has produced a document which envisages the effective dissolution of an independent Ukrainian state, brought about by its victory over the country.

Possibly that prospect, and certainly the prospect of military defeat, apparently has Zelensky banking on Trump to bring a speedy end to the war, thereby limiting Ukraine’s losses and bolstering hopes that the state could be kept afloat with US aid.

Either way, wunderwaffen are proving to be too little, too late and the effect, if anything, is to invigorate a Russia intent on retaliating for the attacks on its territory – a sort of minor “Pearl Harbour effect”, where the net result of the attack was to awaken the giant.