Lessons from Vaccinegate

By Pete North - December 30, 2020

To look at Twitter you would think that Vaccinegate was a vindication of everything brexiteers have ever said. I’m not sure we can go that far but here we have the Commission acting unilaterally in an executive capacity, making a total pig’s ear and nobody will be remotely surprised if heads don’t roll.

More to the point, it does underscore that there is a lot to be said for agility. The UK was able to move first, not least because it is a research leader in the field. If the UK maintains that edge (and there’s no real reason why it can’t) it can capitalise on first mover advantage.

In those such circumstances, the UK is the first to acquire the expertise and the capacity and is therefore, setting its own standards that will inform the future approaches. There is much to be said for maintaining our own capacity to act and share that knowledge (or use it as leverage). It was never going to be the case that the UK would have no influence in future standards setting, or that we would ever be a passive recipient of rules (particularly in an EEA-Efta context).

Moving forward, we now have to develop the TCA as it stands, rebuilding our regulatory capabilities, and though there are penalties for divergence the UK is able to cast a wider net for inputs and does not have to compromise. As the the EU has shown, it is only as fast as the slowest ship in the convoy.

Secondly, this is debacle is something of a vindication of EUreferendum.com which first pointed out the utility of safeguard measures. Though Article 16 wasn’t actually “triggered”, had they done so through the proper channels, the EU could have implemented its authorisation mechanism on the export of vaccines and would have then set off a process to negotiate a rebalancing countermeasure.

Essentially, that same process could have been used to end freedom of movement within the EEA. Though it seemed convoluted at the time we floated it, it now seems like it would have been entirely viable. The EU would, no doubt have demanded a big “rebalancing” penalty given the significance of freedom of movement, probably resulting in a new UK specific annex in the EEA that would have radically altered the EEA relationship for the UK.

What we would then likely have is a liberal package of visas and rights, but removing the inherent entitlements that go with EEA free movement, possibly on a reciprocal basis, or perhaps in exchange for maintaining the 2016 status quo on fishing quotas. Of course, this is all academic now, but had there been a plan, we might well have avoided the collapse of exports we are currently experiencing.

Having chosen a different path, we now face a longer, rockier road to recovery, but the UK is not a down-and-out, and this latest drama rather helpfully demonstrates that the British government does not have the monopoly on incompetence and diplomatic missteps. The difference being that we are now capable of holding our executive to account. In theory.

If the UK plays to its own strengths as a knowledge engine, it is still able set agenda and lead globally. If, by its integrations in international organisations and regulatory forums, it can build coalitions and ad-hoc alliances, there is no reason we can’t punch above our weight and continue to be a global influence.

Rebuilding relations with the EU is going to be a long and difficult road, but Covid shows that neither can afford not to cooperate – and our fates are intertwined. Friendly competition is good – but acrimonious bickering serves nobody.