Media: the perils of prediction
By Richard North - October 4, 2022
Politics is something the national media is supposed to be good at, while the position as custodian of the inside track on the Conservative Party must surely go to the Telegraph, the newspaper that we have so often called – and not always in a complimentary sense – the Torygraph.
But, when it came to predicting the likely moves of The Replacement, under siege from her own party over her higher rate tax cut, there can be few instances when the newspaper got it so spectacularly wrong, running an editorial yesterday headed: “Liz Truss is not for turning” (pictured).
Liz Truss, the paper wrote, “is clearly not a leader easily buffeted by events if she thinks she is right”, confidently adding: “Despite last week’s market turbulence and the subsequent political fall-out, Ms Truss remains determined to pursue the strategy she and her Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, have set out”.
Noting that The Replacement had on the BBC given “an unapologetic defence of every decision she has taken so far, including the cut in top rate tax from 45p to 40p”, the paper applauded what it called “a bravura performance that should give pause to colleagues pressing for a U-turn”, telling us that Miss Trussed’s priority was “with outcomes not optics”.
Yet, not even 24 hours later, Trussed had shoved her chancellor KamiQwazi Modo under the proverbial bus, ditched the tax cut and had her unfortunate stooge trying to pass off their colossal political failure as “a little turbulence”, her authority shot to pieces in the most humiliating of U-turns.
I suppose I should be the very last person to mock a failed prediction, but this egregious example of hubris is just too good to miss – not that there is any shortage of examples.
We see, for instance, a ponderous article in the Guardian today headed: “Colder early winter in Europe could worsen cost of living crisis, say forecasters”, advising us that the EU’s meteorological agency is warning that the La Niña weather pattern makes cold, still and dry snap more likely.
To be fair, The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) cautions that predicting winter conditions are “notoriously difficult” in early October, but it goes on to say that a cold, still and dry snap in November and December, which would worsen the cost of living crisis, is more likely, because of this year’s La Niña.
Carlo Buontempo, the ECMWF’s director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, is cited as saying: “La Niña tends to cause disruption to westerly winds, creating high pressure over Europe, which is what the models are showing for the beginning of winter”.
These are the same models, presumably, which are used for forecast climate change for years ahead, telling us we’re all going to fry in 30 years’ time, even though Buontempo cautions that more reliable data on what would influence the coming winter conditions would only become available in three to four weeks.
When it comes to weather predictions, however – unlike the climate forecasts, which seem to be locked in stone – it seems we are still allowed to pick and choose. Thus, if the prospect of a cold, dry winter is just too depressing, we can always turn to The Times for something more optimistic.
There, we can find the headline: “Mild winter forecast offers hope on energy bills”, the article telling us that for households seeing how long they can hold off turning on the central heating, there may finally be some relief.
An early forecast for this winter, we are told, has found that it should be milder than usual, which could save homes and businesses millions of pounds. It would also reduce the cost of the government’s energy price freeze.
This is according to Christopher O’Reilly at the University of Reading, who has calculated that a 1ºC below average winter temperature equates to an extra overall cost of £1 billion, based on the October price cap for gas. Even a fall of 0.5ºC means energy bills go up by £500 million.
Fortunately, he says, his outlook for winter, to be published by the university’s Department of Meteorology, suggests a relatively mild season ahead, based on the climate model from the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. This suggested UK temperatures will be above average from November to February.
To corroborate the findings, O’Reilly looked at several factors that can influence UK winters. One is the La Niña weather pattern the world is currently experiencing. Then, there is the stronger westerly phase that equatorial winds miles up in the stratosphere are stuck in. Finally, there is the 1.1ºC of climate change that the world has experienced since the industrial revolution.
Records of past UK winter temperatures show La Niña and the equatorial wind conditions both tend to favour mild winters. November and December, in particular, are associated with above average temperatures. The effect is less pronounced for January and February. “So milder conditions might be on the cards for the UK this winter, which would be good news”, says O’Reilly.
All this, incidentally, comes in the context of a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning that Europe’s security of gas supply is facing unprecedented risk as Russia intensifies its use of natural gas supplies as a political weapon.
Ofgem adds that there is a possibility that Britain could enter a “gas supply emergency” in which supplies to some gas-fired power plants could be cut off, stopping them generating electricity. This admission, we are told, is likely to increase fears of blackouts because the UK relies on gas plants for the biggest share of its electricity supplies.
While the UK gets little gas directly from Russia, it is part of the European market and suffers the same effects of surging costs and huge competition for supplies. Thus, while Europe has managed to fill up its storage sites to almost 90 percent, the IEA warns that running them down too quickly would leave countries vulnerable to cold snaps in March.
And yet, one might also recall that in a recent article noted the outcome of the National Grid’s early winter outlook, which optimistically reporting that margins were expected to be within the “Reliability Standard” under normal market conditions, and the ESO expected to be able to manage the supply using its standard operational tools.
With the National Grid now racing to secure additional gas supplies for the winter, we can assume that its new outlook, planned for publication this week, may be a little different from the first attempt, which will mean another prediction biting the dust. Whether we have a mild or severe winter, though, remains to be seen, although our Swedish whitebeam has delivered a record crop of berries.
On a more sombre note, there is the much harder task of attempting to predict whether the Tsar of all the Russias is about to lob a nuke in the general direction of Ukraine, the prospect of which is beginning to exercise the media.
By way of a background, we see in the Washington Post a piece which tells us that Russian warheads are kept in storage under the custody of the defence ministry’s 12th Main Directorate. We are then told:
If Putin were to deploy them, his order would be transmitted to units. Then the weapons would be released from storage onto transport by trucks or helicopters. Once deployed on delivery vehicles – say, missiles or airplanes – Putin would have to issue a direct order to use them. Each step might be detected and provide the United States and its allies time to react.
Entirely by coincidence – one assumes – The Times reports that a train operated by the 12th Main Directorate has been spotted in central Russia, headed for Ukraine, possibly delivering a tactical nuke.
Nevertheless, The Times evidently prefers the meanderings of “international analysts” who suggest that a more likely demonstration of Putin’s readiness to use nuclear weapons could come in the Black Sea.
Anonymous sources say that Nato had sent an intelligence report to its members and allies alerting them to the fact that Russia is expected to test its nuclear-capable torpedo “drone” named Poseidon, possibly in the Black Sea, where the 100 megaton “doomsday” weapon could be used to trigger a massively destructive, radioactive Tsunami.
Although other estimates put the warhead at 2 megatons, this is certainly a prediction to watch. It would be quite interesting to observe the Russians destroying their own Black Sea naval facilities. The prediction is almost as good as venturing that that Miss Trussed will never change what passes for her mind – and probably about as accurate.
