Brexit: limbo
By Richard North - December 21, 2020
It was ironic that, in this Euro-metric world, as the clock ran down to midnight, the negotiators were inching towards a compromise on fishing rights – millimetre by millimetre, one presumes.
Anyhow, having packed up for the night, the teams have missed the magic deadline – the umpteenth in a row – whence the coach turns back into a pumpkin, the horses turn into mice and the pre-prepared narrative cuts in.
This is the one where the European Parliament takes its bat home and refuses to ratify the agreement – not that there is one to ratify – raising the theoretical prospect of weeks without arrangements from 1 January, even if an agreement is subsequently reached.
Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, says that the consequence of a “no-deal” at midnight is obvious. The EP “does not know the consolidated text, is not in a position to scrutinise before the end of the transition period”. Thus, he counsels that we should make preparations for a no-deal period and agree emergency measures.
That, however, need not be the course of action to take. Apparently, talks are continuing today, despite “difficult and significant” differences remaining. A UK government spokesthing assures us that Team UK continues “to explore every route to a deal that is in line with the fundamental principles we brought into the negotiations”.
Assuming a deal is reached before Christmas, a Council decision could provisionally apply the agreement at an EU level, and the Westminster Parliament would have enough time to pass the UK legislation that implements it.
If the talking goes much beyond Christmas, then Westminster won’t be able to deliver, and there may be a short hiatus when no agreement is in place. Then the few truckers who are still mobile will be able to test out the WTO rules scenario.
To an extent though, all bets are off anyway as European nations, led by the Dutch and most recently the French ban air and sea movements from the UK, with the Eurostar service closed down, all in an attempt to deal with Johnson’s mutant Ninja virus.
Although the French action was initially set to last 48 hours, when no traffic may cross into France, the EU Council is due to meet today to consider a coordinated European response, which may extend the exclusion period.
To an extent, this is a foretaste of a no-deal scenario, come early for Christmas, and it won’t be long before the media is flooded with pictures of queues of truck trapped this side of the Channel, waiting for permission to return.
If the controls extend more than the short period originally intended, either the French and other continentals will have to panic-buy trucks, to replace those they are not getting back – and recruit new drivers by the thousands – or the supply chain will crash to a halt just in the run-up to Christmas.
Yesterday, I ventured the not altogether cynical view that the latest Covid developments would take attention away from the failure to reach a deal, and this is turning out to be the case in a spectacular fashion which, even a few hours ago, could not have been predicted.
For months now, the media has been living off the prospect of queues of lorries, caught as the new customs regime took over on 1 January, but nobody anticipated that we would be seeing such massive disruption before Christmas, arising mainly out of Covid.
Even if things are now sorted with maximum speed and efficiency, this disruption will inevitably have a long tail which would have taken weeks to resolve without the complications of the end of the transition period. But, even as it gets worse, the Johnson administration can blame the mutant virus, which might convince some gullible souls that they are not at fault.
As to the EU-UK negotiations, we need to appreciate that it is a long time since we’ve seen a hard copy of the proposals as they stand. One recalls with a certain nostalgic fondness when Barnier was pasting up green-inked versions of the Withdrawal Agreement, to illustrate the progress achieved.
In the absence of official statements backed by document releases, we only have partial and incomplete accounts of what is going on, with a situation which is changing by the hour as both sides dig in further.
Details, therefore, will remain elusive and much of the commentary is speculative and unreliable – not least because, while fishing is capturing the attention, there are other matters which remain unresolved.
Given the unprecedented Covid situation though, there would be some sense in rowing back from the talks, and agreeing a short extension to the transition period – by whatever procedural means could be achieved. This is certainly what Nicola Sturgeon wants to see, and there is some sense in calling for it.
Not only would it give the exhausted negotiat6ing teams a much-needed break, and a cooling off period, it would allow the authorities to focus on the more immediate threat of the Coronavirus thread.
Whether Johnson could think that far ahead, though, is open to question, especially as his ego is heavily vested in the 31 December date for the end of the transition period.
There again, it is worth asking whether, after all this time, an agreement is even possible or, indeed, whether Johnson even wants one. And while Barnier has been talking about a “narrow path” to a deal, one EU officials suggests that the path “has now become a single goat track, about to peter out”
. However, the height of a Covid crisis is clearly not the time to introduce major changes to our trading practices with the EU, where the accumulation of problems already affecting the logistics system already present major challenged.
There is no dispute that the cross-Channel freight system is already under huge pressure. Queues have been stretching back at least five miles on the two main approach roads to Dover and the Eurotunnel terminal have been forming almost every day for the past three weeks, partly because of “Brexit” stockpiling, partly due to Christmas demand and also because coronavirus measures restrict ferry capacity.
Many drivers on the French side have already had to queue for hours to get into Britain, with additional police security checks for migrants causing major tailbacks of up to ten miles. Those who have now been trapped on the UK side face a nightmarish situation which could very quickly develop into a welfare crisis.
How the UK authorities handle this will very much be seen as a test, but it could also set a precedent when it comes to the treatment of British drivers by EU Member States. There is thus a great deal at stake, far too much to sacrifice to short-term considerations.
Overall, the situation could deteriorate very quickly and, before very long, we could be seeing shortages of essential goods in the supermarkets, exacerbated by the panic buying which surely must come. How the UK government reacts now, therefore, could have a massive impact on immediate events.
Given Johnson’s endless capacity for getting it wrong, it would be unwise to expect too much. But if there ever was a time for a demonstration of good crisis management, this is it.
