Brexit: meeting in person
By Richard North - December 8, 2020
Well, after an abortive phone call yesterday, the “talks” have finally reached the stage where they’re totally in the comfort zone of the legacy media – a grand “showdown” is in the making as Johnson and von der Leyen are scheduled to meet in Brussels, possibly on Wednesday – although it could even be Thursday.
After the last lot of “make-or-break” talks that didn’t live up to their billing, having neither made nor broken, we now have another, presumably final, final set of “make-or-break” talks where the pair will actually meet in person, and the media are in their element.
If von der Leyen has any sense, she will be wearing a hazmat suit, and she also has the disease potential to consider. How this will be better that a video call has not been made clear, but then – at this stage – it’s the headlines that count more than the substance.
As one of these fabled, anonymous EU diplomats puts it, “Political intervention won’t do anything when the positions are still heavily guarded”, adding: “Perhaps there is a choreography leading to this special summit. However, on the fundamentals I have not seen anything change and basically nothing has altered for the last eight weeks so I’m in the dark what would now suddenly move which didn’t before”.
In the meantime, the respective negotiation teams have been asked to prepare an overview (or overviews) of the remaining differences to be discussed. So that the lucky pair can get stuck in, even though the only thing they have so far been able to agree is that “the conditions for finalising an agreement are not there”.
Thus, putting himself directly in the limelight is a risky move for Johnson. If he comes away from Brussels with a deal, he will well and truly “own” the result, and will equally be in the frame if the talks fail. More even than Covid, these talks are set to define his premiership.
That said, No 10 is downplaying the chances of success, dismissing the idea that a face-to-face meeting is a positive sign. We are told from an ally close to Johnson that “the differences are every bit as big as they were before”.
As for the details, it is scarcely worth rehearsing them. No sooner are we called upon to fix on the latest offer, then the details change and something new, or a variation of an old theme, comes into view, and we have to start all over again. One might even get the impression the two sides (or one of them) aren’t particularly keen on making a deal.
Irish foreign minister Coveney seems to have a grip on what is going down, warning that there would have to be a “major change” in the British approach for this “summit” to be a success. So far, he says, there has been “no progress at all” in two days of intensive talks since the negotiation resumed on Sunday.
“The next two days need to be very different to the last two days”, he says. “In Brussels certainly the mood is starting to shift to contingency planning for a no deal, as opposed to the compromises that are necessary to get a deal done. That is not where we want this to go”.
Interestingly, this has the Guardian rowing back on its headline claim of a “breakthrough”, which has now retrospectively downgraded to “tentative progress” which, it says, was upended late on Sunday night by new demands from Frost.
That definitely points to real differences remaining, so there is no question of Johnson travelling to Brussels simply to take the kudos for a deal that has already been done, posing for a historical photo-opportunity. “Anyone who thinks this is some sort of victory lap has no idea what is going on”, says another of these anonymous sources – which seems to have a ring of truth about it.
In practical terms, therefore, this upcoming meeting presents significant timing problems. Johnson and von der Leyen cannot themselves conclude a deal. That is not how things are done. All they can do is settle points of principle, clearing logjams for the otherwise stalled talks to continue.
It will then be up to the negotiators from each side to fill in the details in order to turn heads of agreement into the hard copy of a formal, legally binding treaty. And that, inevitably, takes time.
Earlier yesterday, Barnier was stating firmly that the talks would not go past Wednesday, but the only way that can now be the case is if the Principals’ meeting happens on Wednesday and the talks collapse. If the meeting makes progress, then the likelihood is that it will take a couple of days to knock the treaty into shape, which means it will miss the European Council.
On this basis, meeting the Thursday deadline begins to look improbable, perhaps shunting the endorsement procedure into the weekend. This, however, won’t necessarily be a big deal as the European Council can adopt a “written procedure”, with leaders communicating by video feed if need be.
Then, of course, there is the ratification procedure to complete, and every day taken cuts into the time available – notwithstanding that, if Member States ratification is required, this is going to take some months anyway.
In short-term logistical terms, it might be better if the talks fail. That would, at least, relieve the political process of having to work over the Christmas period, leaving the officials and business to clean up their mess as the “no-deal” provisions go into effect.
Certainly, Johnson is not denying the steady drip of propaganda coming from his allies, affirming his willingness to “walk away” if he doesn’t get the deal he thinks he wants, whatever that might be. That does leave wide open the chance that the talks might fail.
Intriguingly, though, there is some chatter – incoherent at the moment – about producing a new (or amended) mandate for Barnier, allowing him more flexibility, with talks then running past the date of the European Council. This, though, could point to the idea of pausing the talks once again, and picking up in the new year.
A new mandate, though, is not necessarily a runner. With a number of Member States already uneasy with what Barnier was said to be offering, loosening the reins might make the talks easier, but there is still the ratification process to consider.
Recently reported concessions on the IMB and Finance Bill by Johnson might pave the way for the European Parliament vote, but the Member States still have their own agendas. Macron has not retreated from his threat to use the veto and he is almost certainly not on his own.
What is interesting also is that, so far in his dealing with Brussels, Johnson has been talking to von der Leyen, the Commission President. That, effectively, puts her on the same level as a head of government, a status which will please the Commission mightily.
Johnson’s predecessor, Mrs May, preferred to deal with the European Council President – then Donald Tusk – who took a more active part in proceedings. Tusk’s successor, Charles Michel, only started his first term on 1 December 2019, and is thus relatively new to job, and a somewhat obscure figure.
Within the EU, however, institutional rivalry is never far away, and one wonders whether Michel will be wanting his place in the sun. So far, he has been stressing that any deal must be “acceptable” to all 27 EU members – a warning to von der Leyen as much as to Johnson.
At Thursday’s European Council, Michel will get his chance to make his mark, and von der Leyen – herself in her first term – must know that anything she agrees with Johnson must be endorsed by the European Council or, politically, it is dead in the water.
It could be even that Michel might be present at any meeting between Johnson and von der Leyen, adding another dimension to the talks, and another layer of complexity – although that will depend on the timing.
His presence, though, would make sense – especially if the purpose was to make Johnson an offer which he had to refuse, thus precipitating a “humiliating” walk-out and a long journey home to “defeat”.
I have visions of a chastened Johnson arriving back at Downing Street, waving a piece of paper and declaring war on ‘Europe’. That would probably be a popular move with his fanboys and would be one way of sorting out the queues at Dover. As they say, given political will, there is always a way.
