The Tory countdown to extinction

By Pete North - September 9, 2020

Boris Johnson put himself on the line when he said there would be no border checks down the Irish Sea. Seemingly he was unaware of the content of his own deal, but now the WA Protocol is due to come into force, he’s going to be extremely embarrassed. This latest wheeze, attempting to change the operation of the agreement, is less about correcting a faulty deal as it is shoring up Johnson’s reputation.

There is some debate as to whether the breach of terms is all that big of a deal in substance, but in terms of the diplomatic message – it’s huge. It says that Britain is not an honest broker. It very much informs the ongoing trade negotiations.

Meanwhile we see signs that the UK has no intention of setting out its state aid position, thereby making any deal impossible. It would seem the game in play is to get Brussels to pull the plug as a blame avoidance tactic – and as a pretext to dump the entire withdrawal agreement. The narrative they’re spinning (the John Redwood line) is that the EU committed to an FTA in the withdrawal agreement (which it didn’t) and if there is to be no FTA then the WA doesn’t stand – particularly if the EU pulls the plug.

In this, it would seem, Johnson has the full backing of the Brexiteers both on his own benches and among the now defunct Brexit Party. The excuses are coming thick and fast – the usual line about the deal being made under duress.

But it has not gone unnoticed that this very much is Johnson’s deal – one that he brokered and commended to the House and to the country. It enjoyed his recommendation and the full backing of the party. They knew damn well what was in it but nonetheless told us it was so much better than Mrs May’s deal. They simply assumed they could iron out the bugs later.

The government is of the view that the EU is being intransigent by way of demanding level playing field provisions as agreed in the political declaration. Such conflicts with their notion of a Canada style FTA, and if it can’t have that then it wants no deal at all, and to be freed from the obligations of the Northern Ireland protocol, the provisions therein, they fear (with some justification), could ensnare the rest of the UK in its state aid rules anyway.

Having realised at the last minute what an absolute dog’s dinner Boris’s deal is, the intention is to somehow manoeuvre us back to where they wanted to be in the first place, ie no deal of any kind. The Benn act during the last parliament sabotaged that plan and now they’re looking for a way back.

But of course there is no way back. The deal was signed, seal and delivered by Johnson and to terminate the WA now would be to unravel everything, very probably putting an end to any hopes of a US FTA. Moreover, it kills of the Tory plan B – the so called “Australian rules deal”.

That, of course, is a pernicious piece of spin. A euphemism for no deal, but suitably ambiguous so that it could mean mutual recognition agreements on conformity assessment. The Tories were always fo the view that if there was no deal they could go back and secure “mini deals”. This was always a nonsense and Barnier said so at the time, as did every EU spokesman involved.

The Australian process, though, involved unilateral alignment with the EU in order to secure the mutual recognition agreements. One without the other is useless. They are formal treaties – and require mutual agreement. If the UK reneges on the withdrawal agreement then that simply isn’t going to happen. The UK is then without any formal relationship with the EU for the duration until such time the UK is willing to implement the provisions of the NI protocol.

Essentially the Tories couldn’t have made a bigger mess of this if they were trying to. We are now on course for no deal, with no telling what will happen as regards Ireland, bringing about a raft of legal disputes soured relations and a tit-for-tat trade war with our nearest and largest export market. They are absolutely raving mad. The only way back from this now is the mother of all u-turns, which is highly unlikely.

Whether they realise it or not the Tories have dug their own grave here. The sort of deception they’re trying to pull generally works with the fan base but Johnson has not made himself any friends with the Covid lockdown and is making it worse by the day. On the hard right, Johnson has lost all credibility. Moreover, the underperformance of Patel has not gone unnoticed. There is nothing recognisably right wing about anything this government does in their eyes.

This does not bode well for Tory election fortunes. The Tories are trading on old divisions. Johnson pulling the “Starmer is a remainer” shtick is old hat. When jobs dry up and food gets expensive, Johnson will find that voters can be as fickle as he is.

What worked in the last parliament won’t cut it after January. Corbyn was always the “backstop” for the Tories. So long as he was in place they could keep abusing their power without consequence. They haven’t quite adjusted to the new reality. Like Wile E Coyote running over the cliff, they haven’t looked down yet. Their problems are only just beginning.

The Tories must know by now that Johnson is a spent man. They know he has to go even if they’re not yet publicly admitting it. But who have they got to replace him who isn’t tainted? When it comes to political talent, the cupboard is bare. Though they’ve got their no deal Brexit in the bag they have no idea what to usefully do with it, and by way of not acknowledging reality they won’t be anticipating the ambushes waiting for them.

For now the opposition need do nothing. A great many of red seats turned blue at the last election on the slenderest of margins, largely as an allergic reaction to Corbyn and for the want of getting Brexit done. With Corbyn gone and our departure secured, Britain might well ask itself what further use it has for this shambles of a party. With an economy in the toilet and a shattered international reputation, it’s all to play for. Blair came to power on the slogan “things can only get better”. Starmer could win with “at least things can’t get worse”.