Comment: an instable world

By Richard North - May 20, 2024

With no single theme to unite the media, headlines are all over the place today, although that may change when the latest news about Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi is picked up and his death or survival is confirmed.

Like the media, Twitter and other internet sources are all over the place, some reports saying the president’s helicopter has been found, others telling us that the search is continuing, while still others are claiming that the president is dead.

In short, at the time of writing, we simply don’t know, although I was intrigued to see that what purported to be the live feed of a Turkish search drone had attracted 1.3 million viewers, despite showing nothing but barren hills in an area close to the border with Azerbaijan.

However, with more than eight hours having passed (at the time of writing) since reports of the helicopter suffering a “hard landing”, and no confirmation of survivors, things do not look good for the president and his entourage, especially as heavy rain, turning to snow, and fog have been reported in the crash area.

It seems remarkable, though, that in this day and age, that a helicopter can go missing for such a prolonged period, given the technology that is available, and the importance of the passengers. It is, therefore, a salutary lesson that there are still many parts of the globe which are inaccessible, where help in the case of disaster is not close to hand.

However, this is Iran, where sanctions have bitten deeply into the state, and where the helicopter operated was an ancient US-made Bell 212, the civilian equivalent of the VietNam era “Huey”. This model possibly dates back to before the 1979 Islamic revolution. It is unlikely that the aircraft would have been fitted with the latest tracking systems.

That said, it appears that US president Biden was “racing to the White House for an emergency meeting to discuss the implications of the reports, while the Russians have despatched two Il-76 transport aircraft, stuffed with search and rescue gear and specialist personnel to help with the search and (presumably) recovery operation.

And, although “condolences” and expressions of concern have been flowing in from all over the world, it must be remembered that Raisi, nicknamed the “Butcher of Tehran” is a thoroughly nasty piece of work. This Newsweek briefing from 2022 only gives a very sanitised version of his career which encompasses the persecution and judicial murder of thousands of Iranian political prisoners.

Unspoken at this time is the thought that, if Raisi is found dead, whether it will have been an accident. Given the Iranian support for Hamas and other terror groups, it won’t be long before tales of dark conspiracy are swirling around the net, to add to all the other theories as to why he might have been bumped off.

Most likely, given the age of the helicopter – and the maintenance difficulties arising from sanctions restricting access to spare parts – plus the poor weather conditions and the rugged terrain, this was an accident. But this hasn’t stopped the authorities in Tehran and elsewhere deploying security forces on the streets in anticipation of a backlash, and outcrops of public disorder.

Ayotollah Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, has led prayers for the president’s safety, and has issued a statement that “there would be no disruption” in the government’s work”. Television pictures have been broadcast showing Iranians gathering on the streets of Tehran, holding vigils for the missing president.

However, there have also been unattributed videos posted on Twitter purporting to show firework displays, celebrating Raisi’s demise – a possible indication of the underlying tensions within the country, where there is much opposition to the Islamic theocracy.

Where all this has a much broader significance is that it adds further instability to an already instable situation, illustrating how just one, relatively minor “black swan” event can have potentially profound repercussions,

Much the same could be said of the assassination attempt on Slovakian prime minister Robert Fico, which has massively increased tension in a country bordering Ukraine, where Fico’s Russian sympathies have raised concerns of a concerted attempt at regime change.

Add to this the situation in Georgia, where there have been massive demonstrations in the streets over prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s attempts to impose the so-called “Russian Law”, which steers the nation away from EU influence into a closer alliance with Russia.

Although the law has since been vetoed by president Salome Zurabishvili, this is largely symbolic and can be overturned by the government engineering a simple majority vote in parliament – which is expected this week.

After the massive protests in the streets of the capital, Tbilisi, this does not augur well for continued stability in a situation that has been likened to the Maidan protests in Ukraine in 2013, which ultimately led to the overthrow of the government and set the nation on its path to war with Russia.

It can never be said that history repeats itself exactly, but the recent episodes convey the feel of pre-war Europe in 1914, immediately after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Bosnia, where the event precipitated a descent into The Great War and the reshaping of Europe.

The Balkans, of course, were always regarded as the crucible of instability and the events of 1992 and the break-up of Yugoslavia precipitated one the bloodiest and vicious European wars of modern times, the ramifications of which are still with us as the situation in Kosovo has yet to be resolved and could erupt into violence at any time.

It does not then take much imagination to join the dots, linking the various strands of instability, taking in the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, and the “axis of authoritarian states”, to which Sunak alluded last week.

I don’t know to what extent one should then link the conflicts in Africa, not least Sudan but also the more lasting conflict in Eritrea. One could also look to the instability in central Africa, where Russian and Chinese influence is increasing. Even the attempted coup in the DRC might have some part to play in the bigger picture.

Looking further afield, there is then the potential for conflict over China’s stance on Taiwan, which would bring the United States into the fray, in a “hot” shooting war which could have global repercussions.

And, as prime minister Modi goes to the polls, on a Hindu nationalist ticket which is bringing him into conflict with Pakistan, there is always the possibility of another war over Kashmir, where two nuclear-armed adversaries battle it out, with Modi already threatening to “show Pakistan its place”.

But, circling back to where this piece started, only yesterday we had Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warn that Iran could be mere weeks away from developing nuclear weapons.

We cannot know whether the possible death of Raisi might affect that calculus, but it is a fair bet that Israel is unlikely to tolerate the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran and may intervene with a number of pre-emptive strikes.

Altogether, in the shadow of 1914, one gets the impression that the world is on the brink, awaiting that one spark that will set off a mighty conflagration, the like of which mankind has never experienced, and which might defy even the most pessimistic assessment.

One’s only consolation might be that Labour is truly on the ball, with its plans to simplify the “dehumanising” gender change process, making it easier to obtain a “gender recognition certificate”.

With that in hand, the terrors of global conflict fade into insignificance as we rest in the knowledge that our potential leaders are fully up to speed in sorting out the priorities that should concern us as a nation.