Middle East: exploiting the cost of war

By Richard North - April 5, 2026

At the time of writing, multiple social media reports are stating that the second crewman of the downed F-15E has been rescued alive and is safe, following what is described as a “massive firefight” as US special forces sought to extract him.

These reports have not been confirmed by the Pentagon and the legacy media is so far still reporting that the search continues for the missing airman. Given the unreliability of social media claims (not that the legacy media are necessarily much better), it would be wise to reserve judgement

Nevertheless, it is not disputed that US troops (albeit in limited numbers) are for the first time fighting directly on Iranian soil and, with US Marines massing elsewhere and the 101st Airborne division reportedly in the region, this may be a taste of things to come.

Certainly, things seem to be coming to a head, with the Telegraph reporting that “US and Israel prepare to ‘rain hell’ on Iran”, with Trump ready to launch new attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

After several false starts, Trump had given Tehran his final, final ultimatum to agree a deal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, and that is due to expire tomorrow. In the meantime, the regime leaders are giving no signs of complying, so we stand poised to expect a further escalation.

As far as can be ascertained, the Israelis are still very much on-side. The IDF is saying that it is ready to “expand its bank of targets” by joining in on launching air strikes on Iran’s energy facilities. All they want is a “green light” from the US, which doesn’t look as if it will be long in coming.

All sorts of clues indicate that the US is gathering its forces to make an all-out effort against Iran. With three carrier groups now in the region, we also learn that the Pentagon is preparing to commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles to the conflict, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.

This unusual step has been presaged by an order to pull the $1.5 million weapon from Pacific stockpiles, which was issued at the end of March. Missiles at US facilities elsewhere, including the continental US, are being moved to US Central Command bases or RAF Fairford in the UK.

The scale of this redeployment is illustrated by the fact that, after the moves, only about 425 JASSM-ER out of a prewar inventory of 2,300 will remain available for the rest of the globe. That would only be roughly sufficient to arm 17 B-1B bombers on a single mission.

The JASSM-ER, or Joint Air-to-Surface Missile-Extended Range, is the US equivalent of the Storm Shadow, with a range of more than 600 miles. Along with the shorter-range JASSM – which has a range of about 250 miles, about two-thirds of US stockpiles have been committed to the Iran war.

That in itself tells its own story. Supplies of missile interceptors and long-range strike weapons have been an issue since the US and Israel started their air campaign on 28 February. It is now estimated that replacing the inventory will take many years-worth of production at current levels.

Whatever the outcome over the next few days, the intensity of this high-tech warfare is creating its own unique stresses, with Christina Lamb at the Sunday Times reporting that Ukraine is struggling with shortages of Patriot missiles, as the US diverts stocks to the Middle East.

Perhaps for the first time in recorded history, we are seeing shortages of high-tech weaponry have a strategic effect as Russia – which is fully aware of the supply situation – exploits the perceive weakness by ramping up drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, in a deliberate attempt to exhaust already depleted stocks of defensive weapons.

To that effect, over the past two weeks Russian forces have carried out repeated air attacks in broad daylight, some lasting as long as 24 hours and using as many as 1,000 drones, integrated with missile strikes.

Ukrainian officials believe that the extended attacks are a deliberate attempt to use up precious air defences, particularly Pac-3 missiles used in Patriot systems which cost $4 million each.

Colonel Yuriy Ignat, head of communications for the Ukrainian Air Force says: “They are doing attacks during the day and these are becoming longer and more exhausting”.

Ignat observes that: “Not only are they harder to intercept as teams are exhausted [after] working all night and face difficulties such as being blinded by the sun, but this also impacts our economy as many offices are shut down all day and schools close. My own 12-year-old daughter was home all day”.

Since the war started more than four years ago, we are told, Russia has mainly carried out major drone and missile strikes at night. However, not only did Russia fire a record number of drones into Ukraine over the past month – more than 6,500 since the war started in Iran – but, for the last two weeks, it has repeatedly followed overnight barrages with hundreds more drones and missiles during the day.

On Friday a massive attack started at 3am, which went on for ten hours, involving 542 drones, 27 cruise missiles and ten ballistic missiles. Although 515 drones were intercepted and 26 missiles destroyed, some got through, destroying 18 buildings in the Zhytomyr region, killing two people in Kharkiv and hitting a veterinary clinic in Kyiv, killing 20 animals.

It also brought economic activity and education to a halt, many offices staying closed all day and schools shut across the country.

Moreover, this was the third such attack in the last 12 days, starting with a 24-hour barrage from 6pm on March 23 that set a record for the number of drones and missiles launched – 984 – and hit cities in the west, far from the front line.

Ignat speaks of other developments, noting that apart from Iranian-designed Shahed drones the Russians were also sending their own-manufacture Gerbera decoy drones, which are designed to mimic Shaheds with the same V-wing shape but carrying less explosive.

“Since the beginning of the war in Iran”, he says, we are seeing increasing quantities of attacks and different trajectories with more of these decoy drones, to use up our air defences”.

And, as far as he is concerned, the strategy is working. “We are running out of Patriot missiles”, he says, pointing to a video of a Patriot launch system with only two missiles left of the eight the launcher normally carries.

“We survived this difficult winter because we had Patriots,” he adds. “We constantly ask for more. If we’re left without these critically needed rockets, we’ll be left without anything and Russians will destroy our critical infrastructure”.

This puts the economic warfare aspect firmly in focus. Patriot missiles are simply too expensive for large stocks to be held in peacetime, while their complexity requires prolonged manufacturing periods before inventories can be refreshed.

Nor can production be ramped up easily, as the trained workforce does not exist and suppliers are reluctant to commit the billion-dollar investments when orders may be sporadic and infrequent, outside periods of conflict.

This dynamic is clearly illustrated with the JASSM-ER stocks. US operations through the first four weeks of the war burned through more than 1,000 of these missiles. US aircraft also launched 47 during the raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

The US has allocated funds to buy more than 6,200 JASSMs since 2009, but baseline production ended about 10 years ago. The manufacturer, Lockheed Martin Corp now has scheduled a production rate for 2026 at 396 of the JASSM-ER. And, although as many as 860 can be manufactured in the plant, it also produces the LRASM anti-ship missile. Focusing production on one means less of the other.

Currently, Operation Epic Fury – the name given by the military for the Iran war – is estimated to be costing the United States $1 billion per day. Initial estimates for the first six days of the war were around $11.3 billion and more recent analyses suggest the total cost of the military campaign has already exceeded $50 billion as it enters its sixth week.

Trump is having to ask Congress for an immediate $200 billion supplemental from Congress in order to finance his war and has proposed a record-breaking $1.5 trillion defence budget for the 2027 fiscal year. This represents a $455 billion increase (roughly 44 percent) over the 2026 budget.

With cuts having to be made elsewhere, even the financial strength of the US is being challenged. Trump needs to hope that his forthcoming offensive against Tehran will succeed, or he risks running out of money before he can force the Ayatollahs to surrender.

Given the staggering costs involved, this should be the last major conflict where operations are based on the presumption of unconstrained financing. For future conflicts, the economics of warfare need to be uppermost in the minds of the military.