Middle East: on the cusp

By Richard North - January 9, 2026

With, according to several sources, many millions of people out in the streets of Iran last night – on the end of the twelfth consecutive day of protest – there is definitely a sense of momentum even if it might be premature to suggest that we’re seeing the end game.

However, although people have evidently heeded the call from Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi for nationwide protests yesterday and today, the Guardian is doing its best to play down the significance of the protests, still framing them as economic protests.

Not so the New York Times which is acknowledging that this is about regime change as it records the “large” crowds chanting, “Death to Khamenei” and “freedom, freedom”, as protesters torch government buildings.

After the prolonged media blackout, with most of the legacy media in the West apparently indifferent to the events in Iran, there are now signs of an awakening. Even the BBC is running “live reports” on its website, with its latest report (at the time of writing) headed: “Anti-government protests continue across Iran”, telling us that “huge crowds of protesters have been marching through Tehran and other Iranian cities in anti-government demonstrations that have entered their 12th night”.

Its previous report, posted just past midnight, recorded Reza Pahlavi saying “Millions of Iranians demanded their freedom tonight”, giving the full text of a statement from the exiled son of Iran’s late former Shah.

Pahlavi thanked Trump as “leader of the free world” for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account, adding: “It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran”.

Noting that the regime had cut all lines of communication and had shut down the internet, he thus called on them “to use all technical, financial, and diplomatic resources available to restore communication to the Iranian people so that their voice and their will can be heard and seen”, pleading for them not to let “the voices of my courageous compatriots be silenced”.

Desperate tines though they might be, the protesters are not entirely on their own. According to a prominent and previously reliable commentator, Mossad is active on the ground, offering discrete support, handing out Starlink dishes to Iranians and giving them vital info to stay safe.

The Israeli agency, we are told, has discovered that the IRGC stores supplies, weapons, water and food underneath mosques and shrines, many of which are connected by tunnels, and are directing Iranians to target them.

Currently, it is said, Mossad are trying to locate Khamenei’s exact location, although there is no news on whether they are planning an assassination. This could be on the cards, but they could just as well be going for an abduction as they did so successfully with Adolf Eichmann in 1960.

Another interesting snippet is that some regime figures are moving their families out of Iran. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is in Lebanon under the pretence of a normal state visit, but his wife and children are also there. And they have no plans to leave.

This is the man to whom the Guardian recently gave space to argue that Trump had been “fooled into seeing Israel as a reliable ally and Tehran as the enemy”. Araghchi asserted that it was time to “consider the evidence and rethink”.

Of the events in Iran, it is being said that last night was the most important night in Iran since the 1979 revolution. It would “decide whether the uprising fails due to the sheer oppression, or whether the people can push forward towards victory”.

One of the night’s largest demonstrations took place in Mashhad, Iran’s second city and the birthplace of Khamenei, a city tightly controlled by his inner circle. This is said to be a major symbolic blow for the regime.

In Tehran, videos, such as this, show the streets full of protestors and it is reported that the protests expanded into more affluent neighbourhoods such as Vanak for the first time. Drivers have joined in with continuous honking, while bazaar merchants went on strike in the city as well as in another 50 cities nationwide.

A feature of the protests has been the demographic spread. All age groups have been involved, with women as well as men. And now there is news of student protests erupting at 36 universities so far, with openly anti-regime slogans. This is an important escalation as students were prominent in the 1979 revolution.

The protests, though, have not been without cost. Human rights groups claim that at least 45 protesters have been killed, including 8 children, although the real number is probably higher. Hundreds have been injured and yesterday alone saw 13 deaths, making it one of the bloodiest days so far.

Just for once, the legacy media is catching up with the news, The Washington Post giving an overview of the regime response and offering eye-witness accounts of the demonstrations. CNN is chipping in and the Wall Street Journal headlines a piece: “Largest Protests in Years Sweep Through Iran’s Capital”.

The Times in London has also offered a detailed report and the Financial Times is on the case, with the news that, Iran is “hit by ‘internet blackout’ as it struggles to contain protests” – an odd rendition of events.

Back in Iran, state media, while forced to acknowledge unrest, are pushing a narrative of “small crowds” and emphasizing alleged attacks on security forces. This is a pattern that some analysts warn may signal preparation for harsher repression.

Meanwhile, rare pro-regime gatherings have been staged, alongside headlines declaring “the defeat of counter-revolutionaries” – unconvincing propaganda which is largely seen as an attempt at damage limitation.

The night’s response to Reza Pahlavi, though, have raised his profile and he is now being regarded as the de facto leader of the revolution. The Guardian is being sniffy about this, asserting that “it is unclear the level of support” he enjoys, despite multiple videos showing crowds chanting his name, and the turnout in response to his call.

With that, calls are growing – by both Iranian and non-Iranian activists – for world leaders to engage directly with Crown Prince, including renewed attention to a potential meeting with Donald Trump and the provision of resources to help him better lead the uprising.

Trump, in a recent interview declined to meet him, saying: “I’ve watched him, and he seems like a nice person, but I’m not sure that it would be appropriate at this point to do that”. The president added: “I think that we should let everybody go out there and we see who emerges”.

As to the outlook, another prominent commentator is not overly optimistic. Protests are expected to continue in the coming days, especially today, he says. But the movement’s success will hinge on the public’s ability to neutralize the Islamic Republic’s repressive apparatus.

So far, he adds, the regime appears not to have deployed its full coercive capacity, relying instead on mass arrests and widespread injuries. If protests advance to the point of overrunning security and state institutions, the regime may resort to large-scale lethal violence.

Thus, he concludes: “The role of Israel and the United States is crucial to the success of the protests”, adding that, “so far, there are no clear signs that the regime’s repressive apparatus is cracking”.

The Telegraph, though – at a safe distance from the action – seems to be more optimistic. Under the headline, “Tehran is gasping, the Iranian regime is about to collapse”, it has MP Tom Tugendhat, but his contribution is to predict that the regime is over, at the latest, when the ageing Supreme Leader dies.

If Mossad has its way, that might be sooner rather than later but, for the moment, the Telegraph news report warns that the blackout could provide cover to authorities to use lethal force. As the death toll rises, things could go any which way. We are truly on the cusp of great events.