Politics: end of the beginning

By Richard North - May 10, 2026

If anyone wanted a foretaste of how the Reform experiment could go horribly wrong, they could do no better than watch the unfolding drama in Bradford to see how it develops.

Ostensibly, the elections represent a significant victory for “team Farage”, bringing to an end 12 years of continuous Labour domination of the city council. From the 47 seats held just prior to these elections (reduced from 49 following the 2024 elections), Labour has plummeted to a mere 17 seats, overtaken by Reform which has taken 29 to emerge as the largest party.

Holding second place (as it did before the elections) is the Conservative Party, going against the national trend by increasing its representation from 13 to 18 seats, one ahead of Labour in third place.

Coming fourth are the Greens with nine councillors, down one from 2024. They include five of Pakistani/Kashmiri heritage – tied with nine from the Your Bradford Independent Group – all but one of them of the same heritage, bringing to 13 the non-aligned South Asian caucus.

Finishing off are the Independents, coming in with a meagre four, as opposed to 16 before these elections (which included “others”), with a pathetic showing from the Lib-Dems – only a single seat left from the four held previously.

The first thing of significance to note is that in the wards dominated by the Pakistani-Kashmiris, sectarian voting predominates. They vote for their own kin. In the City ward, for instance, there were 18 candidates for the three seats. 14 of those were PAK-Kashmiri heritage. The first 12 on the list, in order of votes gained, were from that group. The White British – three of whom represented Reform – didn’t get a look in, all four each taking one percent of the vote.

Manningham ward (Mecca Central to the locals) was similar. Of 16 candidates, nine were of the ethnic persuasion, eight of which topped the list. The one breakaway was a Tory. None of the White British got more then one percent and two, including a Lib-Dem and a Tory, actually scored zero.

One more (of several, to illustrate the point) was Little Horton. Of the 18 candidates, ten were of the favoured ethnics, and the top five were from that group. The bottom two were of the same ethnicity, but they were Conservatives – scoring one and zero percent respectively. The Muslims in Bradford really don’t like Tories.

But, if the P-Ks are favouring their own, it seems that the White British are learning the same lesson. All of the winning Reform candidates and all but one of the candidate list appear to have been White British. The exception was an Indian and he had no chance in a largely Muslim ward (Great Horton).

Where Reform did exceptionally well (gaining multiple clean sweeps – all three seats in a ward) were in the “frontier” wards, those that are still predominately White British but under threat of encroachment from neighbouring Muslim overspill.

My ward, Wibsey and Odsal, is one of them, returning three middle-aged White Reform candidates, displacing Labour, two of which were P-K heritage. The Tories fielded one White British and one Indian heritage candidate, but their lead was a Pak-heritage man by the name of Hassan Butt (same surname as the Birmingham terrorist candidate).

Butt’s contribution to the campaign was to take over the local pub car park in Wibsey High Street on election day and fill it with dark-skinned men in white dresses and silly hats, chanting loudly in Urdu to the enthusiastic beat of native Dholak drums. This is the modern Tory party for you. Butt was rewarded with two percent of the vote.

The point of all this of course is to confirm the reality of “multicultural” Britain. In its political sphere – alongside all else – integration does not exist. There are Pakistani politics and, increasingly, White British politics where Reform is the party of choice. Farage might wish to pretend that he is not “racist”, but most of his voters certainly are.

As for the traditional parties, they are being consigned to the margins, although the Tories are enjoying a small resurgence in the wealthier suburbs, untouched by the Pakistani diaspora. Generally, in Bradford, though, there are indeed no left-right politics. It is White versus the Pakistani diaspora.

But where this now gets interesting is that, although Reform have done well, with 29 seats they fall well short of the 46 needed to lead the council. Bradford now enters the twilight zone of “no overall control”.

(Actually, for the next month, only 44 seats are needed. The Idle and Thackley election was postponed following the death of Councillor Jeanette Sunderland. In the interim, only 87 seats have been filled, but even if Reform gained all three, it would not be enough.)

Doing “the maths”, the most obvious course for Reform as the largest party is to invite the next largest – the Conservatives – to join them in a coalition. Their 29 seats plus the Tories’ 18 would give them a slender working majority of 47.

However, that is to reckon without councillor Rebecca Poulsen, currently leader of the Conservative group in Bradford. When asked by the local paper for her intentions, she dismissed the idea of a coalition, saying: “We’ve had absolutely no conversations (with Reform) whatsoever”.

Poulsen went on to say: “People voted for us as Conservatives on our values and our policies and what we believe in. We didn’t stand as Reform candidates”, before adding: “We’ve worked cross party, you always do on councils, over many years”.

She thus set the scene by adding: “I’m sure there will have to be a lot more of that whatever the future make up is, but there hasn’t (sic) been discussions between any parties as far as I’m aware on anyone doing any formal coalitions or getting together on any issues”.

Behind this may be the germs of a strategy being evolved by the Conservative Party. Rather than joining with Reform as the junior partner in a coalition – with the electoral risks that were so vividly illustrated for the Lib-Dems when they allied with David Cameron in 2010 – the Tories may see some advantage in standing aloof.

Reform, therefore, could be forced into a lead role as a minority administration, with a pack of well-meaning but largely inexperienced political novices, under the oversight of an experienced opposition, where they become prey to every pitfall and trap that can be laid in their path.

In the ensuing disarray leading to chaos, the message could so easily be broadcast that Reform is not fit for government. With the party also facing a similar situation in neighbouring Kirklees, where it has also emerged as the largest party with 29 seats, the situation could be exceptionally fraught after a complete wipe-out of Labour, with that party returning no councillors at all.

The situation in Kirklees is, in fact, potentially worse. There are 69 seats in total so 35 are required for an overall majority, But the next largest group comprises 14 Independents, of which 9 are Muslims who would be ill-disposed to working with Reform. That leaves the Greens, who would be of like mind, leaving a mere 9 Tories who could form a coalition but could also create mayhem if they refused.

At least in West Yorkshire, Reform has the benefit of taking control of Calderdale council where, with 34 seats, they have an overall majority of 14. And in Wakefield council (the county seat) they have secured an overall majority by winning 58 seats – after Labour, the previous ruling party, was left with just a single seat.

Here, though, there could be potentially a double jeopardy. Should Reform struggle with either of the two councils they lead, yet fare better in Bradford, should the Tories decide to join a coalition, that leaves the minority party able to claim the credit for any successes – pointing to the disarray elsewhere.

Thus, although for the national legacy media, the elections are over and the hacks are returning to their obsession with Starmer and a possible leadership contest, there are far more interesting stories evolving out in the sticks, West Yorkshire being only one example.

In that real world, the elections may have finished and the counting halls have emptied, but this is not the end. It is the end of the beginning. Far more interesting dramas are taking shape.