Ukraine: Donbass under pressure

By Richard North - October 31, 2025

It’s a while since I wrote about the war in Ukraine. The last time it cropped up, Trump was injudiciously suggesting that Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, was “in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form”.

Even then, this was not credible and, with monotonous consistency, the Russian steamroller has been grinding on, racking up multiple small gains which, with each small step, bring Putin closer to his immediate objective of occupying the whole of Donbass region – and destroying the Ukrainian army in the process.

Now, with the Rasputitsa having arrived early this year in eastern Ukraine, the Russians seem to be attempting to consolidate their gains and are preparing their positions for the jump-off in late November to early December, when the ground hardens and the winter offensive can get under way.

One of the major hotspots for the moment is Pokrovsk, a once-thriving city of 60,000 in the Donetsk Oblast, and one of chain of fortress cities which have kept the Russians stalled for well over three years.

Actually, if we are to go by the Telegraph, the Russian advance largely came to a halt at the end of September, and their forces have “largely stalled in the Donetsk region”.

The only trouble is that no-one told the Russians, so even the BBC has been reporting – with uncommon detail – a “concerted push” by Russian forces in the region, with Zelensky admitting that they have “gained a foothold” in what is being termed the “strategic hub” of Pokrovsk.

Helpfully, the BBC tells us that Russia has been trying to capture the city for two years, noting that it is a “key supply and transport hub” through which flow supplies and reinforcements to the eastern front. Capture would create the launch pad for investing the towns remaining in the heavily fortified “fortress belt” – Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.

In what has now become a rapidly developing situation, a later report in The Times confirms the BBC’s “foothold” claim, with Zelensky admitting that his forces are outnumbered by the Russians by a factor of eight to one.

All Zelensky will concede, though, is that about 200 Russian infantry have managed to penetrate the city, rejecting a claim by Russia’s chief-of-staff, General Valery Gerasimov, who announced that the city is operationally encircled and that Ukraine’s troops were trapped.

Predictably, the Russians dismiss Zelensky as “the chief illusionist”, constantly appearing on television to persuade the world that Russia is on the brink of collapse, and that Kiev’s regime merely needs more financial and military support. Yet, they say, Ukrainian soldiers themselves corroborate Putin’s statements about deteriorating conditions.

Certainly, the Ukrainian website, DeepState, is less sanguine than Zelnsky, reporting that the city has been surrounded on three sides, declaring that: “The situation in Pokrovsk is on the verge of critical and continues to deteriorate to the point that it may be too late to fix”.

Pokrovsk, in fact, forms the southwest shoulder of a substantial salient (illustrated – source DeepState), which is bounded on the northeast by Krasny Liman, where there has been recent Russian activity, claiming to have trapped substantial Ukrainian forces, including as many as 600 vehicles – elements of three mechanised brigades.

Pressure on both shoulders of the salient, with control extended over Pokrovsk, is already said to have prevented the evacuation of as many as 6,000 Ukrainian troops, some of whom in the next few days may be forced to surrender.

As always, though, the propaganda war is being as closely fought as the shooting war, and for every claim there is a counter-claim.

While conceding that “individual groups of occupiers are trying to infiltrate Pokrovsk” and concentrate in the city, Ukrainian sources says that its forces are identifying and destroying enemy units in the settlement. On 29 October, they say, the Defence Forces eliminated 13 occupiers, four of whom were near the entrance to the city.

As to the claim of operational encirclement, Ukrainian forces state that “Logistics to the city is complicated by enemy FPVs but not interrupted. Various means of counteraction, protection, and support of logistical routes are being used”. Meanwhile, defence forces “continue to clear Pokrovsk from Russian invaders”.

On the other hand, the Kyiv Independent is offering a comprehensive analysis, in which it says the defence of the city “looks to have begun falling apart as Russian soldiers in their hundreds have broken into the city limits, spreading in all directions”.

The paper cites the Ukrainian military, stating that 11,000 Russian troops have been concentrated around Pokrovsk in an attempt to surround the city, although it disputes the claim of a complete encirclement. This, it says, “is still far from reality, but the situation is undoubtedly highly dynamic and deteriorating for the defending side”.

It reports that, “in a grim development”, Russian forces managed to plant the Russian flag on the entrance sign at the Western edge of Pokrovsk on 29 October. although it asserts that the flag is more an exercise in information options than a solid indicator of territorial control.

What is interesting and perhaps highly significant about the report, though, is that the Russians seem to be avoiding open (and costly) assaults and, instead, are increasingly relying on infiltration of numerous small units, taking advantage of the thinly spread Ukrainian lines to seep through the defending positions into the city.

Any idea of coherent fighting with clear battle lines has long since gone. The report describes “conditions of chaotic urban fighting”, where the idea of a clear front line becomes increasingly blurry.

DeepState co-founder, Roman Pohorilyi, says of the Russians, “They don’t control the city, they don’t control any whole neighbourhoods. They just move around chaotically, conduct sabotage and reconnaissance operations, including ambushes”.

This theme is picked up by an article in the New York Times, which cites Denys, a Ukrainian drone operator, who says: “The situation is very difficult because a significant part of the city has already been infiltrated by the occupiers”.

“They’re still building up their presence, more and more, trying to completely saturate the city with their forces”, he adds. “When they encounter our positions, they engage in firefights”.

The paper tells us that Pokrovsk had long stood as a bulwark against Russian advances which have been blocked by Ukraine’s well-prepared defensive lines and extensive use of drones to detect and target incoming attacks.

To get around these defences, though, the Russians have adapted, relying on small, dismounted assault groups, sometimes just two soldiers, which are harder for drones to detect and can infiltrate undermanned Ukrainian lines. Over time, they are able to concentrate enough troops in the city to stage a larger offensive.

“These small groups are like needles: one prick doesn’t hurt much, but when there are many, it becomes an acupuncture session with very sad consequences”, said Bohdan Yanush, deputy battalion commander in Ukraine’s 79th Air Assault Brigade. “They harass logistics, detect our servicemen and open fire on them”.

Pasi Paroinen, a Finland-based military analyst also talks to the NYT, telling us that poor weather hampers Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and helps the Russians, occasionally allowing their armoured vehicles to move with less detection. “The Russians have been using this window for mechanized attacks, complicating the defence for the Ukrainians”, he said (although there have also been reports of vehicles bogged in the heavy mud).

Denys, the Ukrainian drone operator, said Russian forces are also exploiting the continued presence of civilians in Pokrovsk, with more than 1,000 remaining. The troops wear civilian clothing to disguise themselves – a ploy which does not contravene the Hague Convention and is considered a valid ruse de guerre, as long as the troops discard their disguise before taking any offensive action.

Denys nevertheless complains: “How can you tell who’s who if there are no identifying marks, they’re in civilian clothes, and pretending they’re just going to fetch water from a well, so to speak?”.

In uniform or not, though, Paroinen argues that there are now likely too many Russian forces in the city for Ukraine to push them back. Ukrainian soldiers say they face the same challenges that have forced their forces to retreat in other battles: troop shortages and relentless Russian drone attacks that have cut off their supply chains.

And it doesn’t stop in Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces are also being stretched by other assaults along the eastern front. Russian troops have entered Kupiansk, a city Ukraine reclaimed in 2022, and have partly encircled Kostiantynivka, a gateway to northern Donetsk.

All along the front, there is continued pressure and, should the Russians break through the “fortress belt” this winter, there will be then nothing but open steppe between then and the Dnieper. Then Mr Trump would really have his work cut out.