Ukraine: losing the headline war

By Richard North - April 14, 2024

The curse of the Middle East has struck again, with the Iranian drone and missile bombardment of Israel. Although, at the time of writing, some of the attack seems to have been successfully repelled – with the reported direct intervention of the US, the UK, France and Jordan.

However, there have also been indications (as yet unconfirmed) that some missiles have got through, although it is far too early to assess whether there have been any casualties or damage to property.

According to the Iranian permanent mission to the UN, in a statement issued after the attack had started, the Islamic Republic invoked its right of self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, claiming that the military action had been “in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus”.

The statement then declared that: “The matter can be deemed concluded”, with the proviso that, “should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe”. It closed with the warning that this was “a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!”. (Capitals in the original.)

There is an early (again unconfirmed) report that the Israeli war cabinet has approved a “powerful response” to the Iranian attack, enough to add weight to Richard Kemp’s claim in the Telegraph that: “The world stands on the brink of all-out war”.

The allied response has led at least one observer to comment that Ukrainians have been “sitting in shock” watching how everyone scrambled to respond to Iran while the same drone and missile types, along with North Korea’s, had been raining down on Ukrainian cities and towns for over two years.

Not without a hint of bitterness, the observer noted that the response in Ukraine had been “countless conferences and discussions”. Even as the sirens were sounding in Jerusalem, the contrast was further highlighted by the mayor of Kharkiv reporting that, his city was under attack from Iranian-built Shahed kamikaze drones, despite Ukraine begging the West for air defence systems to protect its cities.

This notwithstanding, a side-effect of this crisis has been once more to drive news of Ukraine out of the media – just at the point when the collective seemed to be waking up to the severity of the military situation in that country.

This had been triggered by a post by Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky on Telegram, made during a visit to the embattled Donetsk region on Saturday. As conveyed by the Financial Times and many others, the C-in-C wrote: “The situation on the eastern front has significantly worsened in recent days”, as he noted “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive actions”.

This situation should not have needed the intervention of Ukraine’s C-in-C to provoke media attention, as the deterioration has been evident for some time, and it is perhaps indicative of the laziness of the media, and its distorted news priorities that it took Syrsky to put the ground fighting back on the news agenda.

To be fair, though, the New York Times was a little way ahead of the pack reporting essentially the same news with the headline. “Without More Aid, Ukraine Could Lose the War, US General Says” – this time, as the text indicates, using a United States rather than a Ukrainian General as a source.

In this case, it was Gen. Christopher G Cavoli, the head of the Pentagon’s European Command, speaking to the House Armed Services Committee, whence he was, if anything, delivering a message even more sombre than Syrsky had managed.

“The situation is extremely serious”, he said for openers, going on to warn that Ukraine could lose the war if the United States did not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces, and fast. Two critical munitions were in shortest supply: artillery shells and air-defence interceptors.

“If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defence interceptors in fairly short order”, Cavoli said. “Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses”.

Said the NYT, General Cavoli, a Russia specialist in the US Army, rarely speaks in public. His comments during his annual appearance before Congress to present his command’s budget request and priorities were a sobering assessment of the impact of the US delay in sending Ukraine a $60 billion aid package that congressional Republicans have stalled for six months.

Bloomberg was also on the case, although the agency seems to be able to do its own homework, telling us that Russia’s missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, the bombardment of its second-largest city and advances along the front are stoking worries that Kiev’s military effort is nearing breaking point.

It goes on to tell us that the risk is a collapse of Ukrainian defences – an event, it says, citing an anonymous official, that would give Kremlin an opening to make a major advance for the first time since the initial stages of the conflict,

There is some comfort perhaps to be gained from that official who doesn’t see any signs of an imminent Russian breakthrough, but another official, noting that Ukraine’s morale is low, doesn’t rule out the possibility of a collapse in its army.

For once we get a little detail with the agency telling us that Russian forces have unleashed their firepower all along the frontline and made marginal gains since capturing the eastern city of Avdiivka in February. Kremlin troops, it says, are seeking to close in strategically key spots, such as the town of Chasiv Yar.

Radio Free Europe also gives a good account, with a report headed “Ukraine’s Three-Front War: Advancing Russians, Depleted Artillery, Exhausted Troops”.

Bringing home the reality of the situation, it tells us that “Chasiv Yar is slowly being wiped from the map as Russian jets drop heavy guided bombs that flatten apartment blocks and elite airborne assault units edge into the city’s eastern outskirts”.

Citing Frontelligence Insight, it adds that “the battle for Chasiv Yar…is a litmus test for both sides. If Ukraine were to lose control of Chasiv Yar, it could have dire consequences as it would provide a direct route for the Russian Army to advance towards key cities in the Donbas, such as Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk”.

Syrsky’s intervention, though, was even enough to bring the BBC into the fray, with an additional piece relying on the prestige of the former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Barrons, who has exclusively told the BBC that which was already obvious to anyone keeping on top of the situation, i.e., that there is “a serious risk” of Ukraine losing the war this year.

Barrons, like many though, is still talking of the offensive to come, not showing any awareness of the fact that the Russians have already launched one. Even if the current attacks are a combination of shaping operations and reconnaissance in force, they show every sign of being a concerted effort with a guiding mind behind it.

As to the Ukrainian morale, the New York Times underlines the difficulty Zelensky has in filling the army ranks, with an account of how “draft dodgers” are escaping being called up.

Many Ukrainians who rushed to volunteer in the first days of the war have fought continually since, with only two weeks of leave once a year, we are told. Soldiers are enlisted until the end of hostilities, with no defined date for release from their obligation to serve.

With casualty rates high, being drafted, soldiers say, is like getting a one-way ticket to the front and, as Ukraine’s battlefield prospects have sagged, draft dodging has been on the rise.

But part of the reason for the deteriorating morale is the way the conflict has dropped out of the international headlines as events in the Middle East grabbed the media attention – and with it much of the support.

And, just as much-needed attention was beginning to return to this theatre, we now have the prospect of all-out war in the Middle East crowding out Ukraine’s plight, consigning it once again to obscurity. If this is a war of the headlines, Ukraine is losing.