Ukraine: shared delusions

By Richard North - September 18, 2024

Despite recent events, there is absolutely no truth in the rumour that members of the Labour Party are to be provided with free pagers, on a lifetime contract. Still less is it true that the Russians are airdropping these items to the embattled Ukrainian troops in the Kursk oblast.

What the Russians are doing, it seems, is growing their army to become the second-largest in the world, increasing the establishment by 180,000 to bring it to 1.5 million active personnel, overtaking India and the United States, leaving China as number one.

Russia’s target of 1.5 million compares with an estimated 250,000 personnel in the Ukrainian ground forces, with very little scope for expansion. They are facing about 510,000 Russian troops on Ukrainian territory, with an unknown number confronting Ukrainian forces in the Kursk direction.

Rather in the manner of the outcome of the Second World War being a foregone conclusion once the United States joined the conflict, the disparity in numbers tells its own tale.

The only serious modifier would be an absolute commitment on the part of Zelensky’s allies to provide him with all the equipment and suppliers that he asks for, and even then the limiting factor would be the shortage of trained personnel capable of using what they had been given.

That such a commitment is lacking is well-illustrated by the delay in approving the use of long-range British and US missiles on targets inside Russia, an issue rehearsed here recently in respect of British approval for the use of air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

At the time of my last writing about them, it appeared that the hang-up was the missile guidance system which used American IP, for which specific approval would be required if the missiles were to be used against targets in Russia.

It now transpires that it is indeed the guidance system which is proving the be the hang-up, with the UK government now firmly declaring that it will not “go it alone” because the US guidance system is seen as crucial to the successful use of the missiles.

What sanctions the US could impose if Starmer did decide to change his mind isn’t specified, but it is within the realms of possibility that the US software used could incorporate a “kill switch” that prevented the missile from being deployed. Alternatively, the accuracy could be so degraded that use would be futile.

While this option is on hold, therefore, Zelensky is left fighting his war in conditions where, lacking the full support of his allies, he cannot actually win – even if their support was sufficient to ensure a victory.

It is not entirely clear whether the Ukrainian president is suffering from a clinical condition that fosters unshakable delusions but, as it stands, he is projecting the illusion that Ukraine can win the conflict with Russia, in the throes of producing a “Victory plan” which the Kyiv Independent says is now 90 percent complete.

In his daily address, two days ago, he said the “necessary steps for Ukraine have already been clearly defined”, declaring: “for each step, there is a clear list of what is needed and what will strengthen us. There is nothing impossible in this plan. Over 90 percent has already been written out”.

According to Zelensky, “this package can ensure the right development of the situation not only for Ukraine, but for everyone in the world who values international law”.

As we are already aware, he plans to present the completed work to US president Biden at the end of the month and, while the Kyiv Independent says that no specific details have yet been released, Zelensky has made it clear that the ongoing Kursk “incursion” is a part of his plan.

That has interesting implications because the news website Politico is now saying that, in launching the incursion, Zelensky went against the advice of some of his “top army commanders”.

More specifically, we are told that a number of these commanders actually urged Zelensky not to invade Kursk, but he went ahead anyway.

The former armed forces commander Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, was one of those opposed to the idea, which is probably why he was dismissed. Others who opposed the offensive included Emil Ishkulov, described as the “highly respected” commander of Ukraine’s 80th Air Assault Brigade.

He too was dismissed, despite protests from high-ranking officers who called for him to be kept in post. “We don’t understand why commanders who have unquestioned authority among the personnel, who have a victorious combat record and experience of a big war, are out of favour to the top leadership of the armed forces,” the commanders said in a protest video posted on social media sites.

Local media, we are told, reported at the time that the reason for Ishkulov’s dismissal was that he “opposed a task that didn’t correspond to the brigade’s strength”.

But according to two high-ranking Ukrainian military officials who have now come out of the woodwork to speak to Politico, the real reason was that Ishkulov objected to the Kursk operation, fearing his brigade could eventually be too exposed inside Russia and that the casualty toll could rise precipitously.

Zaluzhny’s objection to the incursion, on the other hand, was that there was no clear second step after the border had been successfully breached by elite Ukrainian units drawn from four brigades.

His concern was that: “once you have the bridgehead, what then?” To this, it appears, he never got a clear answer from Zelenskyy, leaving the former commander in chief to feel that the venture was “a gamble”.

Now, from the heady days in August when the news of the offensive broke, the mood is hardening against it. The Financial Times, for instance, is pointing out that which has been evident for some time, that the incursion has not succeeded in pulling in Russian reserves or diverting forces from the Donbass front.

In fact, the pressure on this 800-mile front continues to be relentless, with Russian media and multiple social media accounts claiming what is termed a “significant victory” with the capture yesterday of the town of Ukrainsk in the eastern Donetsk region.

According to Russian sources, the capture has disrupted Ukrainian supply lines to the nearby city of Kurakhovo and opened a direct route to Selidovo, names previously unknown to western audiences but now briefly famous as stepping stones in the seemingly unstoppable Russian advance.

Elsewhere, in the sense of reinforcing failure, the Ukrainians are said to have launched two further incursions into the Kursk oblast, some 25 km west of the original incursion.

There is no clear, undisputed news about the fate of these new incursions, but reports indicate that the penetrations are shallow and are not making any great progress.

It does not seem to have registered with the Ukrainians that the reaction they sought to provoke has not triggered an emotional response from Putin, who seems content to bide his time before dealing with the intruders. This is, in any event, a traditional Russian response, whose leaders tend to be willing to trade space to buy time and operational flexibility.

Yet, despite this, back in Washington – in the persona of secretary of state Antony Blinken – there is a scent of shared delusion, as the US officials are briefed on elements of Zelensky’s “war winning” plan.

US ambassador at the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, says that the US has seen the plan and declares: “We think it lays out a strategy and a plan that can work”. Miller went on to confide in a news briefing that Blinken had learned about the plan during a visit to Kiev and had “shared the ambassador’s assessment”.

Meanwhile, as a further sign of the deteriorating position, Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, is under heavy Russian bombardment and services are on the point of collapse, as districts in the region are being progressively evacuated.

With an air of pessimism being exuded, there is no good news to report.