Middle East: a major escalation is looming

By Richard North - April 27, 2026

As I was reviewing the media for today’s post, it struck me rather forcibly that the British legacy media is not covering the Iran conflict in any meaningful sense. Rather, they are treating is as a backdrop for their continuing obsession with the Donald Trump soap opera, this providing the excuse to keep (mainly critical) articles about him flowing.

With the news of the highly dramatic assassination attempt, though, they’ve been able to fill their quota of Trump stories – and some – so they don’t need Iran today. They’ve dropped it like a hot brick, so much so that you will struggle to find any recent report on the conflict in the British press.

The best The Times can do is a piece headed: “Iran war leads to halving of predicted house price growth in the UK” – its only offering on the subject. Even then, this is partly attributed to the other soap opera story, “the possibility that Sir Keir Starmer will be ejected from office by the summer”.

Typically, the single story that the BBC can muster is an account which tells us: “Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon amid ongoing ceasefire” – the lens through which the BBC sees most of its stories, notwithstanding that the action was in response to Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire in which one IDF soldier was killed and six wounded.

Despite the lack of British media interest, though, there is no shortage of developments, not least that the entire US State Department team and security equipment has now left Islamabad, while the prime minister of Pakistan announced that the capital (which had been on security lockdown) will be fully open to normal traffic today.

That effectively rules out any prospect of face-to-face negotiations in the immediate future and ends the short-lived role of Pakistan as official mediator in this conflict, an ending made clear by a spokesman for Iran’s National Security Committee.

He accused Pakistan of failing to act as a neutral intermediary in the talks, saying Islamabad “always takes Trump’s interests into account” and was therefore “not a suitable mediator”. He also claimed that Pakistan had not openly communicated that the US initially accepted its proposals before reversing its position, and further alleged unfulfilled commitments related to Lebanon and blocked assets.

There are, however, suggestions that contact is continuing between foreign minister Araghchi and State Department officials via a number of phone conversations, but this cannot be considered negotiation in any normal sense of the word, especially as it remains doubtful as to whether the minister has the authority to act.

It hardly helps that Araghchi is scheduled to visit Moscow for discussions on negotiations and broader regional developments. He is expected to meet Vladimir Putin while there, and the possibility of Russian military assistance being discussed cannot be ruled out.

Separately, it has been reported via the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency that Iran is no longer interested in a nuclear limits deal and will only negotiate terms to end the war.

These must, the statement says, include removal of the blockade from the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and compensation, The regime (i.e., the IRGC) is only prepared to discuss nuclear issues under a separate agreement.

This is not so much a negotiating position as a restatement of Iran’s “red lines”, a stance that is unlikely to open the way to fresh talks with the United States. In fact, it is as clear a signal as is possible that the negotiation process has failed.

Trump, who is saying that he expects the war to end shortly, in any event is on a countdown of his own, saying that Iran could start “exploding from within” in a few days if its oil gets “clogged.”

This is a reference to the limited storage space for Iran’s oil production, which is expected to run out within the next few days. Not only does that mean that production will have to be curtailed, with the potential to cause permanent loss of production capacity, but there are also serious technical problems in attempting to store oil in a system that is designed for a continuous flow of product from the wells to the export terminals.

An explanatory note on social media (the like of which is notably absent in the legacy media) tells us that oil isn’t uniform. It contains heavier components like waxes and asphaltenes that start separating and sticking when flow slows down.

This leads to clogging inside tubing and pipelines, reduced efficiency, and in some cases damage to the reservoir itself, which can make future extraction harder and more expensive.

As pressure builds, the risks expand beyond just clogging: equipment is put under stress. Safety systems get pushed. In more extreme cases, you can see ruptures. It’s not about everything literally exploding at once, but the system starts degrading internally in ways that are costly and sometimes irreversible.

Thus, when Trump talks about “exploding from within”, he’s alluding to the problems of trapping oil inside a system that depends on constant flow. The result is physical strain that spreads quickly through the entire operation, imposing huge pressure on the regime to resolve the blockade quickly.

And despite some claims to the contrary, there are strong indications that the US blockade is working. Although some Iranian tankers are running the Strait by keeping close inshore – within Iranian territorial waters, where US warships do not venture – the indications are from a tracking site that they are being intercepted elsewhere, and sent back to Iran or seized.

Satellite imagery sightings, we are told, confirm arrivals of $1.05 billion-worth of crude oil back to Iran following rapid interdictions by the US Navy. The US Coast Guard, on the other hand, has seized an estimated $380 million worth of Iranian crude oil in the Indian ocean.

The physical oil blockage, however, is not the only weapon in the US armoury. The US Treasury, in an operation labelled “Economic Fury” by Treasury Secretary Bessent, is having considerable success blocking Iranian funds and has moved on to freezing cryptocurrency, which was thought immune to US law enforcement. Last week, the Treasury froze $344 million-worth of digital assets, threatening the very basis of Tehran’s sanction evasion architecture.

Of equal or even greater significance in the longer-term, as well as the short-term, is the announcement that Israel has sent the United Arab Emirates an Iron Dome air defence system (pictured) with Israeli troops to operate it – Jews on Arab turf protecting Arabs from a hostile Islamic state.

Since the start of the conflict, Iran has launched around 550 ballistic and cruise missiles and more than 2,200 drones at the UAE, more than have been directed at Israel itself. This is the first time Israel has sent an Iron Dome battery to another country, and the UAE was the first country outside of the US and Israel in which the system has been used.

This development is being treated favourably by Arab commentators, one remarking that while Arab leaders are willing to engage with Israel, most prefer to do so quietly, behind closed doors. The UAE stands out as the one Arab country willing to do it openly, without hesitation or embarrassment. “This is truly a historic moment”, he says.

A Farsi-language commentator points to Britain under Starmer, which has shown that you cannot depend on it at all, even in traffic-light disputes. By contrast, Israel has shown itself to be a great friend on a rainy day.

Israel, he says, has helped the Middle East get rid of terrorists such as Khamenei and Nasrallah, who killed 500,000 Syrians, created 5.6 million refugees, and caused the deaths of millions of Iranian people. Whether you like it or not, it is a much better friend than many who claim to be your friends and allies, yet disappeared when the Islamic regime in Iran started sending missiles and drones at babies and schools.

Israel, he says, is part of the past, present, and future of the Middle East. A true friend is not known in comfort, but in crisis. Israel stood when others vanished. It faced the Islamic regime in Iran and those who spread terror, bloodshed, and fear across the region. While many spoke loudly of loyalty, they fell silent when missiles were sent toward homes, children, and schools.

Within the regime leadership, sentiment is doubtless very different. Tomorrow is just another day to barely stay alive and keep those widening cracks from bringing the whole structure crashing down on their heads. This life is a full-time nightmare in which they’re thrashing around with their last desperate efforts every single day.

Not a few think the regime is on the brink of collapse, and all the signs are that Mr Trump’s military are ready to help it on its way.

In and amongst the high level of military movements, unprecedented electronic interference has been hitting the Strait of Hormuz, causing widespread disruption to GPS and AIS systems.

Ships in international waters off the United Arab Emirates and Oman are suddenly appearing inside the strait – or even within Omani territory – while data shows vessels in Fujairah as if they are on land, a scene reflecting dangerous navigational chaos in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The significance of this is that someone is jamming the systems needed for missile (and drone) guidance, a process that usually takes place only shortly before an attack. As one writer puts it, a major escalation is looming.