Politics: the ultimate betrayal

By Richard North - July 12, 2026

It may be indelicate to say so, but the murder of Ann Widdecombe has proved rather convenient for Mr Farage, drawing attention away from his own troubles yet keeping him centre-stage as he ramps up the outrage over what he is broadly hinting is a political assassination.

That a new suspect has been arrested in South Yorkshire – a 28-year-old British man – doesn’t yet take us much further in our understanding of this crime but, as before, the temptation to speculate must be resisted.

Meanwhile, there are very strong reasons why the focus should be kept on Farage and his Reform UK party: the outcome of recent developments may decide our politics for the next decade or more and even determine whether, in the years to come, we still have anything that passes for a democracy.

At stake is the survival of a right-wing party which has a realistic chance of acquiring power at the 2029 general election – either alone or in coalition with the Conservatives as the most likely choice in the event of a hung parliament.

Upon that possibility depends whether there is an electoral solution to the decline of Britain, the scourge of mass migration and its attendant failed experiment in multiculturalism, or whether we are faced with the inexorable slide into a low-grade civil war, the nation stricken by sectarian conflict and open antagonism with its own government.

To that extent, as the only realistic contender is Reform UK (Rupert Lowe’s vanity party, Restore, doesn’t cut it), we really need Farage’s party to succeed, not only in getting elected but also in being able to hit the ground running with a credible programme for government.

As to its electability, none other than Jeremy Clarkson (an immensely popular figure) has written in his column in The Sun (paywall) that Farage’s “silly temper-tantrum” over the questions surrounding his finances has “derailed his chances of becoming prime minister.

Courtesy of GB News, we learn that Clarkson believes the row over Farage’s and his party’s financers had overshadowed what he believed had previously been a strong position for the party leader, asserting that Farage “was an absolute shoo-in to win the next general election but now, thanks to his silly temper tantrum, he’s a busted flush”.

I’m not altogether sure that Clarkson isn’t attempting a little bit of rewriting history here, as he’s never been that optimistic about Farage’s chances. Back in January he wrote a column complaining that no-one knew what Reform’s policies were, because it didn’t have any. As a result, he argued, “voting for Farage won’t solve any of your problems”.

Clarkson’s certainly correct on that score, but whether this is enough to deter the faithful seems unlikely, although it may put off potential supporters who are looking for a bit more meat before they commit their votes. And that alone might be enough to deprive Farage of his victory in 2029.

As it is, the recent events have definitely damaged the invincibility myth surrounding Farage, and the wormtongues are in full flow, arguing that “Reform are sinking beneath a tsunami of sleaze”. But even the Telegraph for the first time (to my recollection) is asking “Can Reform survive without Nigel Farage?”.

It takes three of their writers, Tom Harris, Rosa Silverman and Ollie Corfe, their senior data journalist, to discuss the proposition that “Farage’s by-election gamble will test whether voters are loyal to his populist party or just the man himself”, addressing issues which many of us have been talking about for years.

For all that, the gifted hacks approach the subject as an unexpected one, “as revealed by the looks of surprise on voters’ faces when it is posed”. Yet, they write, “even in sunny Havering, the east London borough that has become an electoral bastion of Reform, you can detect a glimmer of recognition that while the poor will always be with us, Nigel may be with us for only a short time”.

As for Reform without Farage, they add, voters in Romford appear to subscribe to the age-old view that it’s the policies that matter, not the leader. They cite Kumar Rama, a 56-year-old security consultant, who asks: “If the ideology runs through the party, then yes, why not?”.

Although much has been made of count binface, as Farage’s most prominent opponent in the Clacton by-election, our hacks believe that the truth is that if Farage leaves frontline politics in the coming months, it is likely to be because he has lost patience with the scrutiny that comes with his role – from both journalists and the main parties.

There is a strong element of truth in that. The real reason why Farage dumped Ukip and set up his own party was his intense dislike of being scrutinised by the party’s national executive committee. In setting up the structure of his new party as a limited company of which he and Yusuf were the sole owners, he ensured that no-one in the party could hold him to account for the conduct of its affairs.

This notwithstanding, write the hacks, this week’s events may force his biggest supporters to start thinking the unthinkable: “Who would replace him, and what would his departure mean for the party he leaves behind, if one is left at all?”.

At the heart of those events was the imminent finding that Farage would be found guilty of breaching parliamentary rules and subjected to a suspension that would trigger a recall petition. He was expected to defy his critics, stand in an ensuing by-election and win.

What no one expected was that he would trigger a by-election himself, even before the parliamentary authorities had had time to gather evidence. This tactic can only pause, not halt, the inquiry, and he still faces the bizarre prospect of suspension and a second by-election should his constituents insist on recalling him after the inquiry reports.

It’s at times like this, the hacks say, that some might start to question Farage’s tactical skills, if not his judgment. Someone who subjects himself to two by-elections might start to look more like a masochist than a martyr. And, in today’s age of political upsets, it’s impossible to rule out the possibility of Farage losing to a gimmick candidate – count binface or even Laurence Fox, the actor-turned-activist who has also thrown his name in the ring.

That Farage’s tactical skills are being questioned almost amounts to heresy. This is the Golden Boy who single-handedly won the referendum and took us out of the EU – a man who, according to his fans, could do no wrong.

And therein lies the essential problem. Without a clearly defined (or any) ideology and bereft of any credible policies, Reform has the character more of a personality cult than a political party. And, as experience showed when Farage dumped Ukip, voter support collapsed. The chances are that the same could happen if he abandoned Reform.

But this time round, the choice may not be entirely up to Farage. Yesterday, a poll published by Find Out Now UK had Reform on 23 percent, the Conservatives on 20 percent and Labour on 18 percent.

This still put Reform in the lead but gone are the heady days when the party was soaring to new heights. In late August 2025, the party first achieved 35 percent – a record-high figure – repeated on 1 October 2025 when it held a commanding 16-point lead over the Labour Party, which sat at 19 percent.

The steady decline is confirmed by Opinium which has Reform on 24 percent, with Labour on 19 and the Conservatives on 18 percent. This again keeps Reform ahead, but its vote share has fallen to its lowest level since early January 2025.

Then we get Lord Ashcroft polling on whom voters would prefer as prime minister. Andy Burnham gets 66 percent and Farage a mere 34 percent. Burnham, predictably, enjoys near-unanimous support from left-wing voters (90+ percent) but also picks up a whopping 40 percent of those who voted Conservative in 2024.

The Golden Boy has lost his shine – too many people now see him for what he is. Additionally, on the left, there is building a powerful “stop Farage” coalition which is set to cost him many seats at the general election through tactical voting.

Things can, of course, change with astonishing rapidity – as we have just seen. But, for the moment, the Right is having a hard time and there is no confidence that 2029 will be the watershed on which so many people are resting their hopes. And if the solution is not to be found in the ballot box, other mechanisms may prevail.

We needed Farage to succeed (not that he was ever going to). His failure will be the ultimate betrayal.