Ukraine: dambusters

By Richard North - June 7, 2023

It’s just as well I didn’t make any predictions when I wrote about Ukraine a couple of days ago. I would probably have been wrong.

I did, however, cast doubt as to whether the much-anticipated counter-offensive would happen sometime soon, only to have some pundits suggest that it has now started. Some newspapers, though, are hedging their bets, describing the reports of increased Ukrainian activity as an “apparent precursor”.

Whether precursor or something more substantial, the activity has been enough to prompt the Russians to blow up the Kakhovka dam on the river Dnieper, causing extensive flooding all the way to the estuary.

This isn’t, incidentally, the dam that was blown up by the Russians in 1941, to slow down the Nazi invaders, and again in 1943 by the Nazis to reverse effect. That was the Dnipro dam, which is further upstream and was built in 1932. That dam, repaired in the 1950s, is still intact and remains in the hands of the Ukrainians.

The more modern Kakhovka dam, commissioned in 1956, was captured by the Russians on 24 February last year and, although the road and rail links across the dam have been destroyed, the dam itself has remained largely undamaged until now.

The 832 square mile Kakhovka Reservoir, created by the dam, supplies drinking water for the region and cooling water for the 5.7 GW Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, currently in Russian hands. The reservoir also provides water for irrigation, including to areas under the control of the Russians, and is also the main source of supply to northern Crimea, feeding the North Crimean and Dnieper–Kryvyi Rih Canals.

Undoubtedly, the water surge resulting from the dam breach would make it more difficult for the Ukrainians to mount a river assault into Russian-occupied territory and, of possibly more lasting effect, the localised flooding will hamper mobility on both banks, again making it more difficult for the Ukrainians to mount an assault.

Given the importance of the water supply, though, it would seem illogical of the Russians to destroy the dam as a defensive measure, unless they were of the view that there was an immediate threat. Yet, while logic has not always been the Russian strong point, there may be another explanation for the timing of the breach.

Immediately before the explosion, the reservoir had been allowed to fill to record levels – presumably to maximise the impact of the breach. But the Kakhovka dam is the lowest (and last) of six controlling the flow of water in the Dnieper River, the five upstream dams remaining in the hands of the Ukrainians.

As water flows slacken during the summer dry season, Ukrainian control of upstream dams could have been exploited to limit the volume of the Kakhovka Reservoir, reducing the defensive potential of a dam breach. To an extent, therefore, the Russians might have decided that it was “now or never” for a breach – even without evidence of a Ukrainian river assault in the planning.

Without further detail, therefore – which might be a long time coming – we cannot necessarily take anything from the timing of yesterday’s event, but it may have bought the Russians some time, whatever the Ukrainian plans, as resources will have to be diverted to evacuating the estimated 16,000 civilians at risk in the Ukrainian-held areas.

On the other hand, the Russians could have been tricked into responding to an elaborate feint, with the Ukrainians having already decided to avoid what would always be a hazardous assault across the Dnieper, instead planning thrusts further to the east.

The Times, which thinks that the counter-offensive has already begun, posits that the Ukrainian attacks will be directed in the first instance to liberating the cities of Melitopol and Mariupol, and the port of Berdyansk, cutting the Russian land bridge to Crimea.

Meanwhile, a separate but coordinated assault on Bakhmut will keep Russian forces tied up in the east, preventing them from being redeployed to assist formations further south, reducing the risk of a flank attack on the main Ukrainian thrust lines.

This, according to the Washington Post, is what Biden administration officials think has been set in train, encouraged by better-than-expected progress on Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometres in some areas of the long front.

The Guardian is also reporting that Ukrainian troops went on the attack at multiple points along the frontline in the Donetsk region on Monday.

Forces claim to be driving back Russian forces in at least two areas in what the paper now says “appeared to be the preliminary stages of Ukraine’s long-anticipated counteroffensive”. Russia, predictably, denies that Ukrainian troops have succeeded, claiming that, yesterday, it had thwarted another major Ukrainian offensive in Donetsk, inflicting heavy losses.

If the general plan looks very logical though, it must also have occurred to the Russians, although there are few options available to the Ukrainians. As with the Allied invasion of Normandy, the 79th anniversary of which has just passed, there is limited scope for strategic surprise. The Ukrainians will have to rely on tactical surprise – mainly in terms of timing – bolstered (as with Overlord) by carefully crafted deception.

Doubtless, the Ukrainians will also be relying on the modern(ish) equipment provided by their Western supporters, and their newly trained brigade formations to punch through the Russian defence lines.

But, while the quality of their kit might have improved, the Ukrainians still lack the mass which will give them the shock effect needed to subdue well-prepared fortifications.

Nevertheless, throughout this conflict, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a capability to surprise and, despite the well-documented limitations of their army, they may well have some unexpected moves planned, which succeed in unhinging the Russian defences.

However, the possibility of a Ukrainian victory – even if only partial – has The Times reactivating fears of an extreme Russian response.

Specifically, the paper has Ukraine warning that Russia may be plotting to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant – presumably replicating the Chernobyl disaster, which would have ramifications for the entire northern hemisphere.

Oleksiy Danilov, Zelensky’s top security official, tells the paper that “the whole world” should be concerned by how reckless Moscow could be, calling yesterday’s destruction of the dam “a fundamentally new stage of Russian aggression”. He argues that, if they can do this, they can do anything.

For the moment, there seems to be general agreement that the nuclear plant is not at risk, although there may come a point in the next few weeks when a shortage of cooling water creates a crisis. Until then, though, the focus will be on the Dnieper floods, which are expected to peak around Kherson sometime later today.

Meanwhile, the battle of words continues. Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, offered a cryptic comment, saying: “True wisdom is to be able to convince the enemies they have already lost”. This has echoes of Sun Tzu, who argues that the greatest triumph of generalship is to win a war without fighting.

It is too late for that, but the next best thing is indeed to convince Putin that he has lost. Some will assert that the road to defeat started in February last year.