Ukraine: missiles for victory

By Richard North - September 23, 2024

It is Britain’s misfortune to suffer a run of extremely poor foreign secretaries, including the notoriously inept Johnson, but we are now confronting what seems to have become the defining rule of British governance: just when you think it has got as bad as it can get … it gets worse.

The rule has brought us David Lammy as foreign secretary, the man who is running point on the growing conflagration in the Middle East and the man who is making the case for the UK’s continued support of Ukraine.

At a fringe event at Labour’s party conference, he has been sharing his views about what he terms as “delicate negotiations” with the White House to allow Ukraine to use the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles on targets inside Russia.

Lammy says the hardship and challenges of the war in Ukraine would get “deeper and harsher”, particularly heading into “the back end of 2025 into 2026” and beyond, arguing – in what is seen as a comment directed at predicant Biden – that “this is a critical time for nerve and guts and patience and for fortitude on behalf of allies who stand with Ukraine”.

Crucially, it seems, Lammy emphasises that Ukraine and its western allies are discussing “what more might be necessary” to help the Ukrainian armed forces on the battlefield beyond trying to hold the front line – which, we are told, “is under acute pressure in the east”.

This mention of help “beyond trying to hold the front line” is an indirect reference to Zelensky’s so-called “victory plan”, which he is planning to present to Biden on Wednesday in Washington after addressing the UN general assembly in New York.

Where the use of long-range weapons inside Russia and the “victory plan” come together is revealed by the broadcaster CNN which has been told by Zelensky what his ambitions for long-rage strikes using these weapons is a key part of his plan.

It is not as if Ukraine does not already have the capability to strike deep inside Russia, witness the recent successful attacks of two major ammunition facilities in Russia’s Krasnodar and Tver regions, part of continued efforts to degrade Russian military infrastructure and reduce the impact of military operations on the front lines. This is something Zelensky concedes – he could hardly do otherwise – but he argues that they are “not the amount we need”.

It may be a coincidence but, just as the rhetoric on the long-range weapons is being ramped up, the Telegraph publishes a report telling us: “Russia drops 900 glide bombs in a week on Ukraine, with the news that Kiev “has struggled for months to counter the highly-destructive bombs which have been laying waste to the eastern part of the country”.

This “900-figure”, we are informed, “comes amid repeated calls from Ukraine for restrictions to be lifted on firing Western-supplied long-range missiles into Russia”, the paper helpfully reminding us that, “Currently, neither the UK nor the US has given Kyiv permission for ATACMS or Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian territory”.

Zelensky is evidently keen to exploit this development, writing on social media: “We need to strengthen our capabilities to better protect lives and ensure safety. Ukraine needs full long-range capabilities, and we are working to convince our partners of this”. He adds, “We will continue these discussions next week”, doubtless referring to his forthcoming talks with Biden.

As to the situation in the eastern part of the country, along the 800-mile or so Donbass front – recently expanded by the Ukrainian’s Kursk incursion – Zelensky’s fortunes have not improved and the Russians continue with their relentless war of attrition, relying on proven operational art.

By this means, we see a continuing, relentless progress, characterised by small, unspectacular gains which are gradually displacing Ukrainian forces from their strongholds.

This has led one commentator to observe that the fighting has reached a stage where “there is a critical mass of deceptively minor Russian advances accumulating all along the front line which may push it westwards and northwards quite a bit in the coming weeks”.

So far, one of the most resistant of the Ukrainian’s fortified towns has been the settlement of Vuhledar (pictured), at the junction of Ukraine’s eastern and southern fronts. Once a thriving settlement of 26,000 people, it is now down to maybe fewer than 500, with every building in the town damaged, lacking basic services and even a functioning water supply.

The town in many ways is celebrated as a symbol of Ukrainian resistance and has been the focus of multiple clashes and is the scene of the largest tank battle of the war. The multiple assaults have occasioned major Russian losses and even up to March of this year, the town was holding firm.

But now, it seems, the end is near. Russian forces are said to have advanced significantly through the fields west of Vuhledar, launching a parallel assault from the town of Prechistovka.

The Russian forces were then reported to have begun to clear all the strongholds along the forest plantations on both sides of the line of advance, closing off escape routes and potentially trapping the Ukrainian defenders still remaining as the town was surrounded. The most recent report suggests that the Russians may have entered the town.

Underlining the gravity of the situation, the Kyiv Independent has Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) give us the background.

“The loss of Vuhledar”, he says, “would be not only a morale blow for Ukraine since this city has resisted plenty of assaults since 2022, but also a very serious development that can potentially threaten the security of the entire southwestern portion of Donetsk Oblast not yet occupied, along with the threat to Pokrovsk’s southern flank”.

This is by no means the full extent of the Ukrainian woes, and it is instructive to see a report from Ukrainian MP, Mariana Bezuhla, until recently deputy head of the parliament’s defence committee and a persistent critic of Ukraine’s military leadership.

After a visit to the Donbass front, she takes the view that the Ukrainian defence is on the verge of collapse. “No defensive structures remain behind Chasiv Yar, in Kostyantynivka, Kurakhove, Selydove, or beyond Vuhledar”, she warned as she sought to prepare Ukraine for potential defeat in Donbas.

Presciently, she declared that: “the fall of Vuhledar is only a matter of time”, which she put down to “the dismissal of the commander of the 72nd Brigade at the height of Russia’s offensive and the lack of prioritised reinforcements for this crucial unit.”

As for the front generally, she said that: “The only reinforcements being sent to Donetsk and Kharkiv regions are newly formed ‘zombie’ brigades, comprised of mobilised individuals with no combat experience, skills, and paralysed by fear”.

Continuing her critique, she added: “Most of the officer corps of these brigades are inexperienced (‘jackets’) and lack even basic military training. The elite forces have been withdrawn, while thousands of troops remain in bloated rear units and administrative headquarters”.

“Fortifications”, she said, “are now being built around the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. This is the most modern project since the full-scale invasion began, but it’s being led by the Regional Military Administration and local officials who are deliberately bypassing outdated instructions from the higher military command”.

The picture in the Kursk incursion is not that much better, although it is anticipated that Zelensky will pour resources into that front to maintain a show of progress, as he makes the incursion a key element of his “victory plan”.

With the Russian counter-offensive already in place, the current situation is currently unresolved, but substantial elements of the Ukrainian forces are at risk of being surrounded and cut off.

Obviously, with the fog of war shrouding the battlefield and with military decisions being made for overtly political reasons, there can be no clarity as to the exact position, but it would be wildly optimistic to assert that the Ukrainian forces were masters of the battlefield.

Maybe, when Zelensky meets Biden on Wednesday, he will be able to convey to him the full scale of Ukraine’s current predicament. And maybe, as a result, the flow of military aid may improve.

There again, Zelensky could return home empty-handed, to discover that the allied missiles are not the only weapons in town. If they eventually work, used to deliver conventional warheads, these could be the missiles for the wrong kind of victory.